ArticleNature communications2023
Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed.
- Trial
- Temporal Association Between COVID-19 Vaccination and HBsAg Loss in Chronic Hepatitis B Infection: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics · 2026Article
- Statistical methods for estimating the protective effects of immune markers using test-negative designs.American journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Effectiveness of heterologous mRNA vaccine boosters during an Omicron wave of COVID-19: a cross-sectional study in Macao (China).Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Capturing SARS-CoV-2 immune landscapes to inform future strategies for COVID-19 vaccination in a high-income setting: a mathematical modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Review
- Effectiveness of Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccination Against COVID-19-Related Hospitalization and Severe Outcomes in Adults ≥80 Years During Omicron Circulation in Beijing, China: Retrospective Cohort Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2026Article
- Reconstructing the incidence rate and immune fraction of the population via a single snapshot survey: A case study of COVID-19 in Japan.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- COVID-19 burden in the paediatric population in Latin America during vaccine rollout: a real-world study using national surveillance data.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Observational
- Dynamic impact of bivalent COVID-19 vaccine boosters on systemic and mucosal antibody and T cell immunity.Scientific reports · 2025Observational
- Influence of immune history when choosing a SARS-CoV-2 booster strategy.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Health impact and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 booster vaccination strategies in the early post-Omicron era: a dynamic modelling study.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- Effects of individual variation and seasonal vaccination on disease risks.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Assessing SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness in health workers: a cohort study conducted during the pandemic decline phase in five hospitals, affiliated to Al-Azhar University- Egypt.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Multitask deep learning for the emulation and calibration of an agent-based malaria transmission model.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Clinical and molecular landscape of prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection with resistance to remdesivir in immunocompromised patients.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Analysis of humoral and cellular immune activation up to 21 months after heterologous and homologous COVID-19 vaccination.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- Review
- Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2024Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
Abstract
With the ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus updated vaccines may be needed. We fitted a model linking immunity levels and protection to vaccine effectiveness data from England for three vaccines (Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273) and two variants (Delta, Omicron). Our model reproduces the observed sustained protection against hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant over the first six months following dose 3 with the ancestral vaccines but projects a gradual waning to moderate protection after 1 year. Switching the fourth dose to a variant-matched vaccine against Omicron BA.1/2 is projected to prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over a 1-year period compared to administering the ancestral vaccine. This result is sensitive to the degree to which immunogenicity data can be used to predict vaccine effectiveness and uncertainty regarding the impact that infection-induced immunity (not captured here) may play in modifying future vaccine effectiveness.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.