Radiomics features from whole thyroid gland tissue for prediction of cervical lymph node metastasis in the patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

objectiveWe aimed to develop a clinical-radiomics nomogram that could predict the cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM) of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) using clinical characteristics as well as radiomics features of dual energy computed tomography (DECT).

methodPatients from our hospital with suspected PTC who underwent DECT for preoperative assessment between January 2021 and February 2022 were retrospectively recruited. Clinical characteristics were obtained from the medical record system. Clinical characteristics and rad-scores were examined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. All features were incorporated into the LASSO regression model, with penalty parameter tuning performed using tenfold cross-validation, to screen risk factors for CLNM. An easily accessible radiomics nomogram was constructed. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve together with Area Under the Curve (AUC) analysis was conducted to evaluate the discrimination performance of the model. Calibration curves were employed to assess the calibration performance of the clinical-radiomics nomogram, followed by goodness-of-fit testing. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to determine the clinical utility of the established models by estimating net benefits at varying threshold probabilities for training and testing groups.

resultsA total of 461 patients were retrospectively recruited. The rates of CLNM were 49.3% (70 /142) in the training cohort and 53.3% (32/60) in the testing cohort. Out of the 960 extracted radiomics features, 192 were significantly different in positive and negative groups (p < 0.05). On the basis of the training cohort, 12 stable features with nonzero coefficients were selected using LASSO regression. LASSO regression identified 7 risk factors for CLNM, including male gender, maximum tumor size > 10 mm, multifocality, CT-reported central CLN status, US-reported central CLN status, rad-score, and TGAb. A nomogram was developed using these factors to predict the risk of CLNM. The AUC values in each cohort were 0.850 and 0.797, respectively. The calibration curve together with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the nomogram indicated good agreement between predicted and pathological CLN statuses in the training and testing cohorts. Results of DCA proved that the nomogram offers a superior net benefit for predicting CLNM compared to the "treat all or none" strategy across the majority of risk thresholds.

conclusionA nomogram comprising the clinical characteristics as well as radiomics features of DECT and US was constructed for the prediction of CLNM for patients with PTC, which in determining whether lateral compartment neck dissection is warranted.