ArticleNature communications2023
Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 42 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission: rapid review of evidence from Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- Estimation of transmission distance between cases of (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases and its potential application in outbreak response.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Why Andes hantavirus is not the next SARS-CoV-2: contrasting viral shedding, transmissibility and genomic patterns.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 spike protein expression drives post-acute coagulopathy.Journal of virology · 2026Article
- Five Years of COVID-19 in Tocantins, Brazil: Epidemiology, Vaccination Impact, and SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Dynamics (2020-2025).Viruses · 2025Article
- Impact of Population Immunity and Public Health Measures on the Transmission of Omicron Subvariants BA.2 and BA.5 in Hong Kong.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Inferring temporal trends of multiple pathogens, variants, subtypes or serotypes from routine surveillance data.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Socioeconomic and temporal heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 exposure and disease in England from May 2020 to February 2023.Science advances · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2: The Interplay Between Evolution and Host Immunity.Annual review of immunology · 2025Review
- Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Early, Robust Mucosal Secretory Immunoglobulin A but not Immunoglobulin G Response to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Spike in Oral Fluid Is Associated With Faster Viral Clearance and Coronavirus Disease 2019 Symptom Resolution.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Quantitatively analyzing the relationship between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the direction of virus evolution using a dynamic model.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Over time analysis of the codon usage of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants.Computational and structural biotechnology journal · 2025Article
- Comparison of two polymerase chain reaction assays, DaAn Gene (DaAn Gene 2019-ncov) and Cepheid (Cepheid Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2) for Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 detection in Yaoundé, Cameroon.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Article
- Article
- Evaluating the impact of extended dosing intervals on mRNA COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in adolescents.BMC medicine · 2024Article
- Review
- Evaluating the impact of extended dosing intervals on mRNA COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in adolescents.Research square · 2024Article
- Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Review
- Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
17 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse epidemiological surveillance data from England. We quantified the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), therapeutics, and vaccination on virus transmission and severity. Each successive variant had a higher intrinsic transmissibility. Omicron (BA.1) had the highest basic reproduction number at 8.3 (95% credible interval (CrI) 7.7-8.8). Varying levels of NPIs were crucial in controlling virus transmission until population immunity accumulated. Immune escape properties of Omicron decreased effective levels of immunity in the population by a third. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies, we found Alpha had the highest basic infection fatality ratio (2.9%, 95% CrI 2.7-3.2), followed by Delta (2.2%, 95% CrI 2.0-2.4), Wildtype (1.2%, 95% CrI 1.1-1.2), and Omicron (0.7%, 95% CrI 0.6-0.8). Our findings highlight the importance of continued surveillance. Long-term strategies for monitoring and maintaining effective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 are critical to inform the role of NPIs to effectively manage future variants with potentially higher intrinsic transmissibility and severe outcomes.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.