ArticleScientific reports2023
Integer time series models for tuberculosis in Africa.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- SEIRS model for TB transmission dynamics incorporating the environment and optimal control.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A plea for urgent action: Addressing the critical shortage of cardiothoracic surgical workforce in the COSECSA region.World journal of surgery · 2024Article
- The Use of Viral Vectors for Gene Therapy and Vaccination in Tuberculosis.Pharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Review
- Tackling Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis: New Challenges from the Old PathogenMicroorganisms · 2023Review
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Tuberculosis, an airborne disease, is the deadliest human infectious disease caused by one single agent. The African region is among the most affected and most burdensome area in terms of tuberculosis cases. In this paper, we modeled the number of new cases of tuberculosis for 2000-2021 by integer time series. For each African country, we fitted twenty different models and selected the model that best fitted the data. The twenty models were mostly based on the number of new cases following either the Poisson or negative binomial distribution with the rate parameter allowed to vary linearly or quadratically with respect to year. The best fitted models were used to give predictions for 2022-2031.
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