ArticleJournal of translational medicine2023
Development and validation of a blood biomarker score for predicting mortality risk in the general population.
Article in Journal of translational medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Association of Vitamin D Levels and Mortality in Overactive Bladder: Nonlinear Dose-Response and Threshold Effect.Food science & nutrition · 2026Article
- Multimodal risk profiles reveal shared and disease-specific risks of major non-communicable diseases: a prospective cohort study of 42,666 individuals.International journal of public health · 2026Article
- A proteomic signature of healthspan.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- A proteomic signature of healthspan.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Delving into biomarkers and predictive modeling for CVD mortality: a 20-year cohort study.Scientific reports · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundBlood biomarkers for multiple pathways, such as inflammatory response, lipid metabolism, and hormonal regulation, have been suggested to influence the risk of mortality. However, few studies have systematically evaluated the combined predictive ability of blood biomarkers for mortality risk.
methodsWe included 267,239 participants from the UK Biobank who had measurements of 28 blood biomarkers and were free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer at baseline (2006-2010). We developed sex-specific blood biomarker scores for predicting all-cause mortality risk in a training set of 247,503 participants from England and Wales, and validated the results in 19,736 participants from Scotland. Cox and LASSO regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors for men and women separately. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated by C-index and calibration plots, respectively. We also assessed mediating effects of the biomarkers on the association between traditional risk factors (current smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, hypertension, diabetes) and mortality.
resultsA total of 13 independent predictive biomarkers for men and 17 for women were identified and included in the score development. Compared to the lowest tertile of the score, the highest tertile showed a hazard ratio of 5.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.04-5.71) in men and 4.23 (95% CI 3.87-4.62) in women for all-cause mortality. In the validation set, the score yielded a C-index of 0.73 (95% CI 0.72-0.75) in men and 0.70 (95% CI 0.68-0.73) in women for all-cause mortality; it was also predictive of CVD (C-index of 0.76 in men and 0.79 in women) and cancer (C-index of 0.70 in men and 0.67 in women) mortality. Moreover, the association between traditional risk factors and all-cause mortality was largely mediated by cystatin C, C-reactive protein, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and hemoglobin A1c.
conclusionsWe established sex-specific blood biomarker scores for predicting all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the general population, which hold the potential to identify high-risk individuals and improve targeted prevention of premature death.
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