ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2023
Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 32 citations in OpenAlex.
- Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2024Pooled it
- Assessing the impact of intervention strategies on dengue dynamics in Shenzhen, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Global, Regional, and National Burden of Malaria and Dengue from 1992 to 2021, with Projections to 2036: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Dengue virus at the landscape scale in Cambodia: Linking climate and land use dynamics with Dengue ecology in Southeast Asia.Research square · 2026Article
- Unravelling the dengue surge in South Asia during 2000-2023: pattern, trend, genomics, and key determinants.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Intimate partner violence victimisation before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Manitoba, Canada: a time series analysis.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Spatial distribution and risk assessment of dengue incidence at district level across major climatic zones in India.PloS one · 2026Article
- Epidemiological Trends and Predictive Modeling of Dengue Fever in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Countries.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Modeling the impact of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Dire Dawa, Afar, and Somali, Ethiopia: an African regional perspective.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Vector-borne infectious diseases in pregnancy in the era of climate change: A focus on mosquito- and tick-borne pathogens (Review).Experimental and therapeutic medicine · 2025Review
- Impact of urban heat island effect on dengue incidence: a remote sensing approach using thermal and high-resolution optical imagery.BMC public health · 2025Article
- A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-Term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Review
- Low atypical lymphocyte score as a predictor of non-severe dengue.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Observational
- Application of multiple linear regression model and long short-term memory with compartmental model to forecast dengue cases in Selangor, Malaysia based on climate variables.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Transient Expression of Zika NS2B Protein Antigen inACS omega · 2025Article
- Analysing dengue fever spread in Kenya using the Zero-Inflated Poisson model.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Article
- Environmental sustainability in intensive care: the path forward. An ESICM Green Paper.Intensive care medicine · 2024Article
- Clinical Manifestations of Dengue in Children and Adults in a Hyperendemic Region of Colombia.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Climate change impacts on dengue transmission areas in Espírito Santo state, Brazil.Oxford open immunology · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and Southeast Asian settings. We collected weekly data of dengue fever incidence, daily mean temperature and rainfall from 2012 to 2020 in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai. Projections for temperature and rainfall were drawn for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) scenarios. Using a disease transmission model, we projected the dengue fever epidemics until 2090s and determined the changes in annual peak incidence, peak time, epidemic size, and outbreak duration. A total of 684,639 dengue fever cases were reported in the four locations between 2012 and 2020. The projected change in dengue fever transmission would be most significant under the SSP585 scenario. In comparison to the 2030s, the peak incidence would rise by 1.29 times in Singapore, 2.25 times in Colombo, 1.36 times in Selangor, and >10 times in Chiang Mai in the 2090s under SSP585. Additionally, the peak time was projected to be earlier in Singapore, Colombo, and Selangor, but be later in Chiang Mai under the SSP585 scenario. Even in a milder emission scenario of SSP126, the epidemic size was projected to increase by 5.94%, 10.81%, 12.95%, and 69.60% from the 2030s-2090s in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai, respectively. The outbreak durations in the four settings were projected to be prolonged over this century under SSP126 and SSP245, while a slight decrease is expected in 2090s under SSP585. The results indicate that climate change is expected to increase the risk of dengue fever transmission in tropical areas of South and Southeast Asia. Limiting greenhouse gas emissions could be crucial in reducing the transmission of dengue fever in the future.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.