ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2023
Population-level impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering long-acting injectable PrEP to MSM in three high-resource settings: a model comparison analysis.
Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- Interest in and Preference for Long-Acting Injectable Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Among Men Who Have Sex With Men, Trans* Individuals, and Cisgender Heterosexual Women: A Global Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Pooled it
- A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Pooled it
- Barriers and Facilitators to Equitable Implementation of Long-Acting Injectable PrEP for Racial, Gender and Sexual Minority Populations in NYC: The EquiPrEP Study.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Modelling the 5-Year Impact of Twice-Yearly Injectable Lenacapavir for HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis in the United States.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Epidemiologic Impact of Prioritizing Long-Acting Injectable Cabotegravir to Men Who Have Sex With Men With Low Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Use Adherence in the Netherlands: A Mathematical Modeling Study.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2026Article
- Article
- Cost-effectiveness of concurrently available oral and long-acting injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis for preventing HIV infections among men who have sex with men in eastern China: A modelling study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Estimating the percentage and number of people with indications for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) within two key populations, Canada, 2021.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2026Article
- Early Implementation of Long-Acting Injectable Cabotegravir for HIV Prevention in a Safety Net Hospital-based Primary Care Center in U.S. South.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of leveraging long-acting injectable cabotegravir to expand PrEP coverage among MSM in two contrasting North American cities.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Estimated benefits of providing on-demand pre-exposure prophylaxis options for cisgender women in South Africa: A modeling study.PloS one · 2026Article
- The unseen impact of affordability: copayment sensitivity for long-acting PrEP among MSM in six European Countries, October 2023-April 2024.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among MSM in Australia.AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
- Perceptions of Long-Acting Injectable Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Among Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Individuals in Europe Using Structural Text Modeling Technique: Cross-Sectional Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2025Article
- Hotspot model shows how location-based superspreading accelerates and reshapes epidemics.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Oral PrEP use and intention to use long-acting PrEP regimens among MSM accessing PrEP via governmental and non-governmental provision pathways, 20 European countries, October 2023 to April 2024.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of PrEP provision expansion among MSM in the Netherlands.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Article
- Estimating the population need for preexposure prophylaxis for HIV in the United States.Annals of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Preference for Long-Acting Injectable PrEP Compared With Daily Oral PrEP Among Transgender Women in the U.S.: Findings From a Multisite Cohort.AJPM focus · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 8 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionLong-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) demonstrated superiority to daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the HPTN 083/084 trials. We compared the potential impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA to men who have sex with men (MSM) in Atlanta (US), Montreal (Canada) and the Netherlands, settings with different HIV epidemics.
methodsThree risk-stratified HIV transmission models were independently parameterized and calibrated to local data. In Atlanta, Montreal and the Netherlands, the models, respectively, estimated mean TDF/FTC coverage starting at 29%, 7% and 4% in 2022, and projected HIV incidence per 100 person-years (PY), respectively, decreasing from 2.06 to 1.62, 0.08 to 0.03 and 0.07 to 0.001 by 2042. Expansion of PrEP coverage was simulated by recruiting new CAB-LA users and by switching different proportions of TDF/FTC users to CAB-LA. Population effectiveness and efficiency of PrEP expansions were evaluated over 20 years in comparison to baseline scenarios with TDF/FTC only.
resultsIncreasing PrEP coverage by 11 percentage points (pp) from 29% to 40% by 2032 was expected to avert a median 36% of new HIV acquisitions in Atlanta. Substantially larger increases (by 33 or 26 pp) in PrEP coverage (to 40% or 30%) were needed to achieve comparable reductions in Montreal and the Netherlands, respectively. A median 17 additional PYs on PrEP were needed to prevent one acquisition in Atlanta with 40% PrEP coverage, compared to 1000+ in Montreal and 4000+ in the Netherlands. Reaching 50% PrEP coverage by 2032 by recruiting CAB-LA users among PrEP-eligible MSM could avert >45% of new HIV acquisitions in all settings. Achieving targeted coverage 5 years earlier increased the impact by 5-10 pp. In the Atlanta model, PrEP expansions achieving 40% and 50% coverage reduced differences in PrEP access between PrEP-indicated White and Black MSM from 23 to 9 pp and 4 pp, respectively.
conclusionsAchieving high PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA can impact the HIV epidemic substantially if rolled out without delays. These PrEP expansions may be efficient in settings with high HIV incidence (like Atlanta) but not in settings with low HIV incidence (like Montreal and the Netherlands).
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.