ArticleDemography2023
A Generational Shift: Race and the Declining Lifetime Risk of Imprisonment.
Article in Demography, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
- Why America's prisons are shrinking and racial gaps are closing.Nature human behaviour · 2026Article
- Children's Exposure to Recent Family Member Criminal Legal System Involvement.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Incarceration and Subsequent Psychosocial Outcomes: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study of Youth After Detention.Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry · 2026Article
- Do local geographic characteristics moderate the association between familial incarceration and adolescent depression and anxiety?BMC psychology · 2025Article
- The direct financial costs of having a family member incarcerated.Science advances · 2025Article
- Cardiovascular Death and Access to Health Care Among Individuals Incarcerated in US State Prisons From 2001 to 2019.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2025Article
- Falling racial inequality and rising educational inequality in US prison admissions for drug, violent, and property crimes.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Does stress from incarceration of family and friends contribute to signs of early vascular ageing in African American women?Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2024Article
- Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Control Following Release From Carceral Facilities: A Cross-Sectional Study.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2024Article
- Adult Children of the Prison Boom: Family Troubles and the Intergenerational Transmission of Criminal Justice Contact.Demography · 2024Article
- Perceptions, Attitudes, and Experiences Regarding Mental Health Care Among Young Black Men.American journal of men's healthArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Mass incarceration fundamentally altered the life course for a generation of American men, but sustained declines in imprisonment in recent years raise questions about how incarceration is shaping current generations. This study makes three primary contributions to a fuller understanding of the contemporary landscape of incarceration in the United States. First, we assess the scope of decarceration. Between 1999 and 2019, the Black male incarceration rate dropped by 44%, and notable declines in Black male imprisonment were evident in all 50 states. Second, our life table analysis demonstrates marked declines in the lifetime risks of incarceration. For Black men, the lifetime risk of incarceration declined by nearly half from 1999 to 2019. We estimate that less than 1 in 5 Black men born in 2001 will be imprisoned, compared with 1 in 3 for the 1981 birth cohort. Third, decarceration has shifted the institutional experiences of young adulthood. In 2009, young Black men were much more likely to experience imprisonment than college graduation. Ten years later, this trend had reversed, with Black men more likely to graduate college than go to prison. Our results suggest that prison has played a smaller role in the institutional landscape for the most recent generation compared with the generation exposed to the peak of mass incarceration.
Indexed as
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.