ArticleNature communications2023
The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 56 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
56 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- Heterogeneity in and correlation between host transmissibility and susceptibility can greatly impact epidemic dynamics.Journal of theoretical biology · 2025Pooled it
- Decoding mpox: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the transmission and severity parameters of the 2022-2023 global outbreak.BMJ global health · 2025Pooled it
- Pooled it
- From behavioral to structural correlates: a multi-phase analysis of global reported mpox.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of vaccination and behavioural change on Mpox transmission in high-risk groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo using an age-structured mathematical model.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Behavior change and infection induced immunity led to the decline of the 2022 Mpox outbreak in Berlin.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- The Emerging Threat of Monkeypox: An Updated Overview.Viruses · 2026Review
- Simulating a potential mpox outbreak: Implications for control in non-endemic settings.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Pre-exposure vaccination in the high-risk population is crucial in controlling mpox resurgence in Canada.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Associations between the 2022 global mpox outbreak and multifaceted factors: A multi-geographical retrospective study.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Review
- Preemptive Mpox Vaccine Deployment: Aligning Strategy With Reality.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A Compartmental Mathematical Model to Assess the Impact of Vaccination, Isolation, and Key Epidemiological Parameters on Mpox Control.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Public Health Impact of the MVA-BN Vaccine During the 2022 Mpox Outbreak: A Systematic Review.Infectious disease reports · 2025Review
- Can social support improve Mpox care-seeking among men who have sex with men through stigma reduction: a chain mediation analysis from China.Global health research and policy · 2025Article
- Relationship dynamics and behavioral adaptations in the control of the 2022 mpox epidemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Mpox: What Have We Learned and How Do We Better Prepare for the Future?The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Transmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 Outbreak.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies to control future mpox outbreaks in England: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Beginning in May 2022, Mpox virus spread rapidly in high-income countries through close human-to-human contact primarily amongst communities of gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Behavioural change arising from increased knowledge and health warnings may have reduced the rate of transmission and modified Vaccinia-based vaccination is likely to be an effective longer-term intervention. We investigate the UK epidemic presenting 26-week projections using a stochastic discrete-population transmission model which includes GBMSM status, rate of formation of new sexual partnerships, and clique partitioning of the population. The Mpox cases peaked in mid-July; our analysis is that the decline was due to decreased transmission rate per infected individual and infection-induced immunity among GBMSM, especially those with the highest rate of new partners. Vaccination did not cause Mpox incidence to turn over, however, we predict that a rebound in cases due to behaviour reversion was prevented by high-risk group-targeted vaccination.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.