Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37429922›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2023

Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022.

Joan Ballester, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Raúl Fernando Méndez Turrubiates, Ferran Pegenaute, François R Herrmann, Jean Marie Robine, Xavier Basagaña, Cathryn Tonne, Josep M Antó, Hicham Achebak

Erratum issued Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. It is linked to trial NCT07491133 (Effect of Ambient Temperature on Insulin Absorption and Change in Blood Glucose Levels in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes), which is not on this map. Cited by 198 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
198citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07491133 nanot yet recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2026, after this paper: background citation

Effect of Ambient Temperature on Insulin Absorption and Change in Blood Glucose Levels in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes

TypeinterventionalSponsorInstitut de Recherches Cliniques de MontrealRan2026 to 2027Enrolled30ConditionsType 1 Diabetes MellitusArmsEnvironmental Temperature Exposure
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

198 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Article
  6. Communicating and Constructing Risk: Government and Public Interactions in Responding to Heat Risks.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026
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138 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Joan BallesterISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain. joan.ballester@isglobal.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0009-437X
Marcos Quijal-ZamoranoISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4603-5877
Raúl Fernando Méndez TurrubiatesISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.
Ferran PegenauteISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0197-3675
François R HerrmannMedical School of the University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
Jean Marie RobineMolecular Mechanisms in Neurodegenerative Dementia, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4111-6195
Xavier BasagañaISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8457-1489
Cathryn TonneISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.
Josep M AntóISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.
Hicham AchebakISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Over 70,000 excess deaths occurred in Europe during the summer of 2003. The resulting societal awareness led to the design and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect at-risk populations. We aimed to quantify heat-related mortality burden during the summer of 2022, the hottest season on record in Europe. We analyzed the Eurostat mortality database, which includes 45,184,044 counts of death from 823 contiguous regions in 35 European countries, representing the whole population of over 543 million people. We estimated 61,672 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 37,643-86,807) heat-related deaths in Europe between 30 May and 4 September 2022. Italy (18,010 deaths; 95% CI = 13,793-22,225), Spain (11,324; 95% CI = 7,908-14,880) and Germany (8,173; 95% CI = 5,374-11,018) had the highest summer heat-related mortality numbers, while Italy (295 deaths per million, 95% CI = 226-364), Greece (280, 95% CI = 201-355), Spain (237, 95% CI = 166-312) and Portugal (211, 95% CI = 162-255) had the highest heat-related mortality rates. Relative to population, we estimated 56% more heat-related deaths in women than men, with higher rates in men aged 0-64 (+41%) and 65-79 (+14%) years, and in women aged 80+ years (+27%). Our results call for a reevaluation and strengthening of existing heat surveillance platforms, prevention plans and long-term adaptation strategies.

Indexed as

Hot TemperatureMortalityAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolEuropeFemaleHumansInfantInfant, NewbornItalyMaleMiddle Aged

Identifiers

PMID37429922
PMCPMC10353926

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.