ArticleJournal of thoracic disease2023
Development of prognostic models to estimate the probability of lung injury one year after COVID-19-related hospitalization-a prospective study.
Article in Journal of thoracic disease, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Long-term effects of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) infection still under study. The objectives of this study were to identify persistent pulmonary lesions 1 year after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalization and assess whether it is possible to estimate the probability that a patient develops these complications in the future. Methods: A prospective study of ≥18 years old patients hospitalized for SARS-COV-2 infection who develop persistent respiratory symptoms, lung function abnormalities or have radiological findings 6-8 weeks after hospital discharge. Logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors associated with a higher risk of developing respiratory problems. Models performance was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination. Results: A total of 233 patients [median age 66 years [interquartile range (IQR): 56, 74]; 138 (59.2%) male] were categorized into two groups based on whether they stayed in the critical care unit (79 cases) or not (154). At the end of follow-up, 179 patients (76.8%) developed persistent respiratory symptoms, and 22 patients (9.4%) showed radiological fibrotic lesions with pulmonary function abnormalities (post-COVID-19 fibrotic pulmonary lesions). Our prognostic models created to predict persistent respiratory symptoms [post-COVID-19 functional status at initial visit (the higher the score, the higher the risk), and history of bronchial asthma] and post-COVID-19 fibrotic pulmonary lesions [female; FVC% (the higher the FVC%, the lower the probability); and critical care unit stay] one year after infection showed good (AUC 0.857; 95% CI: 0.799-0.915) and excellent performance (AUC 0.901; 95% CI: 0.837-0.964), respectively. Conclusions: Constructed models show good performance in identifying patients at risk of developing lung injury one year after COVID-19-related hospitalization.
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