Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37422982›Full record

ArticleJournal of clinical anesthesia2023

Development of an automated, general-purpose prediction tool for postoperative respiratory failure using machine learning: A retrospective cohort study.

Michael E Kiyatkin, Boudewijn Aasman, Melissa J Fazzari, Maíra I Rudolph, Marcos F Vidal Melo, Matthias Eikermann, Michelle N Gong

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of clinical anesthesia, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
2.6field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 12 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Michael E KiyatkinDepartment of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center and Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA. Electronic address: mkiyatkin@montefiore.org.
Boudewijn AasmanCenter for Health Data Innovations, Montefiore Medical Center and Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.
Melissa J FazzariDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.
Maíra I RudolphDepartment of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center and Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA; Department for Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Marcos F Vidal MeloDepartment of Anesthesiology, NewYork-Presbyterian, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, USA.
Matthias EikermannDepartment of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center and Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA; Department of Anesthesiology, NewYork-Presbyterian, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, USA; Klinik für Anästhesiologie und Intensivmedizin, Universität Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
Michelle N GongDepartment of Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center and Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.
Albert Einstein College of Medicine · USMontefiore Medical Center · USTexas Health Dallas · US

Funding

CTSA Administrative Supplement for Informatics Core: A novel AI/ML system to predict respiratory failure and ARDS in Covid-19 patientsUL1TR002556 · NCATS · ALBERT EINSTEIN COLLEGE OF MEDICINE, INC · PI KELLER, MARLA J, KIM, MIMI Y · 2018 to 2022
$26.7M
1/2: An Anesthesia-Centered Bundle to Reduce Postoperative Pulmonary Complications: The PRIME-AIR StudyUH3HL140177 · NHLBI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI FERNANDEZ-BUSTAMANTE, ANA, VIDAL MELO, MARCOS F · 2020 to 2023
$6.6M
Prevention of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure in Patients with PROOFCheck - an EUH3HL125119 · NHLBI · ALBERT EINSTEIN COLLEGE OF MEDICINE, INC · PI GAJIC, OGNJEN, GONG, MICHELLE NG · 2015 to 2018
$3.3M
Prevention of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure in Patients with PROOFCheck - an EUH2HL125119 · NHLBI · ALBERT EINSTEIN COLLEGE OF MEDICINE · PI GAJIC, OGNJEN, GONG, MICHELLE NG · 2014 to 2014
$612k
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002556NHLBI NIH HHS UH2 HL125119NHLBI NIH HHS UH3 HL125119NHLBI NIH HHS UH3 HL140177
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

STUDY

objectivePostoperative respiratory failure is a major surgical complication and key quality metric. Existing prediction tools underperform, are limited to specific populations, and necessitate manual calculation. This limits their implementation. We aimed to create an improved, machine learning powered prediction tool with ideal characteristics for automated calculation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: We retrospectively reviewed 101,455 anesthetic procedures from 1/2018 to 6/2021. The primary outcome was the Standardized Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine consensus definition for postoperative respiratory failure. Secondary outcomes were respiratory quality metrics from the National Surgery Quality Improvement Sample, Society of Thoracic Surgeons, and CMS. We abstracted from the electronic health record 26 procedural and physiologic variables previously identified as respiratory failure risk factors. We randomly split the cohort and used the Random Forest method to predict the composite outcome in the training cohort. We coined this the RESPIRE model and measured its accuracy in the validation cohort using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) analysis, among other measures, and compared this with ARISCAT and SPORC-1, two leading prediction tools. We compared performance in a validation cohort using score cut-offs determined in a separate test cohort. MAIN

resultsThe RESPIRE model exhibited superior accuracy with an AUROC of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.95) compared to 0.82 for both ARISCAT and SPORC-1 (P-for-difference < 0.0001 for both). At comparable 80-90% sensitivities, RESPIRE had higher positive predictive value (11%, 95% CI: 10-12%) and lower false positive rate (12%, 95% CI: 12-13%) compared to 4% and 37% for both ARISCAT and SPORC-1. The RESPIRE model also better predicted the established quality metrics for postoperative respiratory failure.

conclusionsWe developed a general-purpose, machine learning powered prediction tool with superior performance for research and quality-based definitions of postoperative respiratory failure.

Indexed as

AnestheticsRespiratory InsufficiencyHumansMachine LearningRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsAnestheticsMachine learningPerioperative medicinePostoperative respiratory failurePreoperative prediction

Identifiers

PMID37422982
PMCPMC10529165
OpenAlexW4383604669

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.