ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2023
Effect of Rapid Urbanization in Mainland China on the Seasonal Influenza Epidemic: Spatiotemporal Analysis of Surveillance Data From 2010 to 2017.
Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Multi-source machine learning for short-term influenza forecasting in Hunan Province, China: a spatiotemporal analysis using surveillance, search, meteorological and air-quality data.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal analysis of influenza in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2024.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Trends and factors influencing over-the-counter cold and cough medication sales in Guangzhou, China: 2011-2017.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Social support and risk perception of influenza among Chengdu residents: A cross-sectional study during post-pandemic recovery.PloS one · 2025Article
- Article
- Increased Risk of Influenza Infection During Cold Spells in China: National Time Series Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- The non-stationary and spatially varying associations between hand, foot and mouth disease and multiple environmental factors: A Bayesian spatiotemporal mapping model study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Remedies from nature: exploring the moderating mechanisms of natural landscape features on emotions and perceived restoration in urban parks.Frontiers in psychology · 2024Article
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12 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe world is undergoing an unprecedented wave of urbanization. However, the effect of rapid urbanization during the early or middle stages of urbanization on seasonal influenza transmission remains unknown. Since about 70% of the world population live in low-income countries, exploring the impact of urbanization on influenza transmission in urbanized countries is significant for global infection prediction and prevention.
objectiveThe aim of this study was to explore the effect of rapid urbanization on influenza transmission in China.
methodsWe performed spatiotemporal analyses of province-level influenza surveillance data collected in Mainland China from April 1, 2010, to March 31, 2017. An agent-based model based on hourly human contact-related behaviors was built to simulate the influenza transmission dynamics and to explore the potential mechanism of the impact of urbanization on influenza transmission.
resultsWe observed persistent differences in the influenza epidemic attack rates among the provinces of Mainland China across the 7-year study period, and the attack rate in the winter waves exhibited a U-shaped relationship with the urbanization rates, with a turning point at 50%-60% urbanization across Mainland China. Rapid Chinese urbanization has led to increases in the urban population density and percentage of the workforce but decreases in household size and the percentage of student population. The net effect of increased influenza transmission in the community and workplaces but decreased transmission in households and schools yielded the observed U-shaped relationship.
conclusionsOur results highlight the complicated effects of urbanization on the seasonal influenza epidemic in China. As the current urbanization rate in China is approximately 59%, further urbanization with no relevant interventions suggests a worrisome increasing future trend in the influenza epidemic attack rate.
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