ArticleFrontiers in public health2023
Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hohhot, China: a time-varying SQEIAHR model analysis.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks in China: a four-year retrospective analysis using extended SEIR models.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Modeling healthcare resource dynamics and its application based on interregional population mobility.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Assessing the impact of vaccination and medical resource allocation on infectious disease outbreak management: a case study of COVID-19 in Taiyuan City.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 reinfection during the epidemic period in Yangzhou city, Jiangsu province.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Epidemiological and laboratory characteristics of Omicron infection in a general hospital in Guangzhou: a retrospective study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Predicting the transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus infection in Shanxi province after the implementation of the "Class B infectious disease Class B management" policy.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
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Abstract
Background: On September 28, 2022, the first case of Omicron subvariant BF.7 was discovered among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections in Hohhot, China, and then the epidemic broke out on a large scale during the National Day holiday. It is imminently necessary to construct a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hohhot. Methods: In this study, we first investigated the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Hohhot, including the spatiotemporal distribution and sociodemographic distribution. Then, we proposed a time-varying Susceptible-Quarantined Susceptible-Exposed-Quarantined Exposed-Infected-Asymptomatic-Hospitalized-Removed (SQEIAHR) model to derive the epidemic curves. The next-generation matrix method was used to calculate the effective reproduction number ( Results: Of the 4,889 positive infected cases, the vast majority were asymptomatic and mild, mainly concentrated in central areas such as Xincheng District. People in the 30-59 age group primarily were affected by the current outbreak, accounting for 53.74%, but females and males were almost equally affected (1.03:1). Community screening (35.70%) and centralized isolation screening (26.28%) were the main ways to identify positive infected cases. Our model predicted the peak of the epidemic on October 6, 2022, the dynamic zero-COVID date on October 15, 2022, a number of peak cases of 629, and a cumulative number of infections of 4,963 (95% confidential interval (95%CI): 4,692 ~ 5,267), all four of which were highly consistent with the actual situation in Hohhot. Early in the outbreak, the basic reproduction number ( Conclusion: Our model was effective in predicting the epidemic trends of COVID-19, and the implementation of a more stringent combination of measures was indispensable in containing the spread of the virus.
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