Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37414780›Full record

ArticleNature communications2023

Natural statistics support a rational account of confidence biases.

Taylor W Webb, Kiyofumi Miyoshi, Tsz Yan So, Sivananda Rajananda, Hakwan Lau

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Towards an integrative neuroscience of metacognition.Nature reviews. Neuroscience · 2026
    Review
  2. Article
  3. Confidence in naturalistic decision making.Neuroscience of consciousness · 2026
    Article
  4. Physicians' metacognition in medical decision-making.Neuroscience of consciousness · 2026
    Article
  5. Confidence Is Detection-Like in High-Dimensional Spaces.Open mind : discoveries in cognitive science · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Computational and Neuronal Basis of Visual Confidence.Annual review of vision science · 2025
    Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Taylor W WebbUniversity of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. taylor.w.webb@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0002-1335-3177
Kiyofumi MiyoshiKyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-6549-9928
Tsz Yan SoThe University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Sivananda RajanandaHarvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Hakwan LauLaboratory for Consciousness, RIKEN Center for Brain Science, Saitama, Japan. hakwan@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0001-8433-4232

Funding

Investigating the brain basis of metacognition with real-time fMRI neurofeedbackF32MH117972 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI WEBB, TAYLOR W · 2019 to 2022
$155k
NIMH NIH HHS F32 MH117972
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Previous work has sought to understand decision confidence as a prediction of the probability that a decision will be correct, leading to debate over whether these predictions are optimal, and whether they rely on the same decision variable as decisions themselves. This work has generally relied on idealized, low-dimensional models, necessitating strong assumptions about the representations over which confidence is computed. To address this, we used deep neural networks to develop a model of decision confidence that operates directly over high-dimensional, naturalistic stimuli. The model accounts for a number of puzzling dissociations between decisions and confidence, reveals a rational explanation of these dissociations in terms of optimization for the statistics of sensory inputs, and makes the surprising prediction that, despite these dissociations, decisions and confidence depend on a common decision variable.

Indexed as

CognitionDecision MakingBiasProbability

Identifiers

PMID37414780
PMCPMC10326055

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.