ArticleCell2023
Dispersal patterns and influence of air travel during the global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.
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Article in Cell, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers.
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47citing papers in PubMed
12.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
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47 citing papers in PubMed, 66 citations in OpenAlex.
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Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
21 authors at 12 institutions in 5 countries.
Houriiyah TegallyCentre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa; KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa. Electronic address: houriiyah.tegally@gmail.com.
Eduan WilkinsonCentre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Joseph L-H TsuiDepartment of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Monika MoirCentre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Darren MartinWellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa (CIDRI-Africa), Cape Town, South Africa; Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Anderson Fernandes BritoInstituto Todos pela Saúde, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Marta GiovanettiLaboratorio de Flavivirus, Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Department of Science and Technology for Humans and the Environment, University of Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy.
Kamran KhanBlueDot, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Carmen HuberBlueDot, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Isaac I BogochDepartment of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
James Emmanuel SanKwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
Jenicca PoongavananCentre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Joicymara S XavierCentre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa; Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Unaí, Brazil.
Darlan da S CandidoMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Filipe RomeroMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Cheryl BaxterCentre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Oliver G PybusDepartment of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College London, London, UK.
Richard J LessellsKwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
Nuno R FariaDepartment of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Moritz U G KraemerDepartment of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. Electronic address: moritz.kraemer@biology.ox.ac.uk.
Tulio de OliveiraCentre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa; KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa; Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: tulio@sun.ac.za.
Stellenbosch University · ZALondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research · GBUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais · BRUniversity of KwaZulu-Natal · ZAUniversity of Oxford · GBUniversity of Toronto · CABlueDot (Canada) · CAInstituto de Saúde · BRRoyal Veterinary College · GBSOAS University of London · GBUniversity of Cape Town · ZAUniversity of Washington · US
Funding
University of Washington Arboviral Research Network (UWARN)U01AI151698 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Michael Gale, PETER MACGARR RABINOWITZ · 2020 to 2026
$13.3MeLwazi Open Science Data Platform for AfricaU2CEB032224 · NIBIB · UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN · PI MULDER, NICOLA, SKELTON, MICHELLE · 2021 to 2025
$11.2MRole of Data Streams In Informing Infection Dynamics in Africa- INFORM AfricaU54TW012041 · FIC · INSTITUTE OF HUMAN VIROLOGY · PI Alash'le G. Abimiku, Tulio de Paiva Nazareth Andrade De Oliveira · 2021 to 2026
$6.9MFIC NIH HHS U54 TW012041Medical Research Council MR/S0195/1Medical Research Council MR/S019510/1NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI151698NIBIB NIH HHS U2C EB032224Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 204311/Z/16/ZWellcome Trust 222574/Z/21/ZWellcome Trust 225288/Z/22/Z
Abstract
The Alpha, Beta, and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) co-circulated globally during 2020 and 2021, fueling waves of infections. They were displaced by Delta during a third wave worldwide in 2021, which, in turn, was displaced by Omicron in late 2021. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of VOCs worldwide. We find that source-sink dynamics varied substantially by VOC and identify countries that acted as global and regional hubs of dissemination. We demonstrate the declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs in their global dispersal, estimating that India contributed <15% of Delta exports and South Africa <1%-2% of Omicron dispersal. We estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron within 100 days of its emergence, associated with accelerated passenger air travel and higher transmissibility. Our study highlights the rapid dispersal of highly transmissible variants, with implications for genomic surveillance along the hierarchical airline network.
Indexed as
Air TravelCOVID-19HumansPhylogenySARS-CoV-2genomicsglobal dispersalmobilityphylogeneticsphylogeographySARS-CoV-2travelvariants
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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.