Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37407583›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2023

Forecasting virus outbreaks with social media data via neural ordinary differential equations.

Matías Núñez, Nadia L Barreiro, Rafael A Barrio, Christopher Rackauckas

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Matías NúñezConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina. matias.nunez2@gmail.com.
Nadia L BarreiroInstituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas para la Defensa (CITEDEF), Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Rafael A BarrioInstituto de Física, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Apartado Postal 20-365, México, 04510, Mexico.
Christopher RackauckasComputer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02142, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

During the Covid-19 pandemic, real-time social media data could in principle be used as an early predictor of a new epidemic wave. This possibility is examined here by employing a neural ordinary differential equation (neural ODE) trained to forecast viral outbreaks in a specific geographic region. It learns from multivariate time series of signals derived from a novel set of large online polls regarding COVID-19 symptoms. Once trained, the neural ODE can capture the dynamics of interconnected local signals and effectively estimate the number of new infections up to two months in advance. In addition, it may predict the future consequences of changes in the number of infected at a certain period, which might be related with the flow of individuals entering or exiting a region. This study provides persuasive evidence for the predictive ability of widely disseminated social media surveys for public health applications.

Indexed as

COVID-19Social MediaDisease OutbreaksForecastingHumansPandemicsSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID37407583
PMCPMC10322995

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.