Low recruitment drives the decline of red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) along the southeast USA Atlantic coast: Inferences from fishery-independent trap and video monitoring.

Red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) is a reef-associated, economically-important, winter-spawning, protogynous Sparidae species that appears to have declined in abundance in recent years along the southeast United States Atlantic coast. We used spatially-explicit generalized additive models built with fishery-independent chevron trap (1990-2021) and video data (2011-2021) to quantify the ways in which red porgy relative abundance and mean size varied across temporal, spatial, environmental, and habitat variables. Mean red porgy relative abundance from traps declined by 77% between 1992 and 2021, and declines were similarly large (69%) on video between 2011 and 2021. The largest two-year decline in relative abundance occurred early in the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2021)- 32% in traps and 45% on video-despite already low abundance. Highest red porgy relative abundance from traps and video occurred in deep areas (i.e., 60-100 m) between southern North Carolina and north Georgia, and red porgy preferred low relief but continuous hardbottom habitats (i.e., pavement). We confirmed recent low recruitment of red porgy in the region based on the large increase in mean length (29%) and severe (~99%) declines of juvenile red porgy caught over the 32-year trap survey. Evidence suggests that recruitment failure is partially or mostly responsible for red porgy abundance declines, and, moreover, the regulation of harvest is unlikely to achieve sustainable management goals until recruitment increases.