ArticleNature communications2023
Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
What it found
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Vulnerability to high temperature shapes global warming impacts on rice yield.Science advances · 2026Article
- Smart breeding for diversified agricultural systems.Nature food · 2026Article
- Multi-hazard exposure and vulnerability drive rising agricultural risk in global breadbasket regions.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Overcoming breeding barriers with genome editing in autopolyploid crops.BMC plant biology · 2026Review
- Green synthesis of binary FeOOH/FeBMC plant biology · 2026Article
- Record-breaking emergence of upstream-downstream zonal-consistent variation in the Eurasian jet axis.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Eliminating hunger in a world serious about climate mitigation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Evidence for preferred propagating terrestrial heatwave pathways due to Rossby wave activity.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Dynamical-generative downscaling of climate model ensembles.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Changes in the western flank of the North Atlantic subtropical high since 1140 CE: Extremes, drivers, and hydroclimatic patterns.Science advances · 2025Article
- Extreme Events Contributing to Tipping Elements and Tipping Points.Surveys in geophysics · 2025Review
- Article
- Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
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- Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future.PNAS nexus · 2024Review
- Pulmonary vascular disease, environmental pollution, and climate change.Pulmonary circulation · 2024Review
- Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Role of atmospheric resonance and land-atmosphere feedbacks as a precursor to the June 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Dome event.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature.Nature climate change · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.