Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37400673›Full record

ArticleJournal of epidemiology and global health2023

The Description and Prediction of Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years Cases, and Corresponding Age-Standardized Rates for Global Diabetes.

Jianran Sun, Wan Hu, Shandong Ye, Datong Deng, Mingwei Chen

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In one paragraph

Article in Journal of epidemiology and global health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Gut microbes · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Jianran SunDepartment of Endocrinology, Division of Life Science and Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of USTC, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230001, Anhui, China.
Wan HuDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
Shandong YeDepartment of Endocrinology, Division of Life Science and Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of USTC, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230001, Anhui, China.
Datong DengDepartment of Endocrinology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, 218 Jixi Road, Hefei, 230022, Anhui, China.
Mingwei ChenDepartment of Endocrinology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, 218 Jixi Road, Hefei, 230022, Anhui, China. chmw1@163.com.ORCID 0000-0002-8439-0469

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveDiabetes is a life-long disease that poses a serious threat to safety and health. We aimed to assess the disease burden attributable to diabetes globally and by different subgroups, and to predict future disease burden using statistical models.

methodsThis study was divided into three stages. Firstly, we evaluated the disease burden attributable to diabetes globally and by different subgroups in 2019. Second, we assessed the trends from 1990 to 2019. We estimated the annual percentage change of disease burden by applying a linear regression model. Finally, the age-period-cohort model was used to predict the disease burden from 2020 to 2044. Sensitivity analysis was performed with time-series models.

resultsIn 2019, the number of incidence cases of diabetes globally was 22239396 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 20599519-24058945). The number of prevalence cases was 459875371 (95% UI 423474244-497980624) the number of deaths cases was 1551170 (95% UI 1445555-1650675) and the number of disability-adjusted life years cases was 70880155 (95% UI 59707574-84174005). The disease burden was lower in females than males and increased with age. The disease burden associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus was greater than that with type 1; the burden also varied across different socio-demographic index regions and different countries. The global disease burden of diabetes increased significantly over the past 30 years and will continue to increase in the future.

conclusionThe disease burden of diabetes contributed significantly to the global disease burden. It is important to improve treatment and diagnosis to halt the growth in disease burden.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Disability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMalePrevalenceQuality-Adjusted Life YearsEvaluationGlobal diabetes burdenPrediction

Identifiers

PMID37400673
PMCPMC10469163

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.