ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
Demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony for North American songbirds.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Denning Phenology Mediates Sea-Ice Loss Impacts on Early Reproductive Success in Polar Bears.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Storm-induced mass mortality results in both immediate and long-term consequences for a migratory songbird.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Phenological plasticity enables thermal homeostasis in a wild bird population.Science advances · 2026Article
- Changing Rainfall Drives Locally Asynchronous Reproduction of Tropical Birds via Modular Trophic Pathways.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Timing of rainfall influences juvenile and yearling mass of a long-lived herbivore in a semiarid environment.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Warming and Change in Ocean Productivity Alter Phenology of an Expanding Loggerhead Population in Cabo Verde.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026Article
- Passive Acoustic Data as Phenological Distributions: Uncovering Signals of Temporal Ecology.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Divergent climate impacts despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Modeling Phenological and Physiological Responses to Climate Warming in a Hypothetical Migratory Songbird-Mosquito System.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Phenological Plasticity and Its Temperature-Related Drivers in Common Songbirds Across Europe.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Adult survival has a stronger role than productivity in the annual population change of European songbirds.Oecologia · 2025Article
- Analysis of Relative Abundance Distribution and Environmental Differences for Blue Mackerel (Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025Article
- Exploring the spatiotemporal influence of climate on American avian migration with random forests.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Shifts in avian migration phenologies do not compensate for changes to conditions en route in spring and fall.Ecology · 2025Article
- Potential for bird-insect phenological mismatch in a tri-trophic system.The Journal of animal ecology · 2025Article
- Environmental Variability Shapes Life History of the World's Birds.Ecology letters · 2025Review
- Modelling asynchrony in phenology considering a dynamic representation of meteorological variables.PeerJ · 2025Article
- Space-for-time substitutions exaggerate urban bird-habitat ecological relationships.The Journal of animal ecology · 2024Article
- Advances in breeding phenology outpace latitudinal and elevational shifts for North American birds tracking temperature.Nature ecology & evolution · 2024Article
- Spatial match-mismatch between predators and prey under climate change.Nature ecology & evolution · 2024Review
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Changes in phenology in response to ongoing climate change have been observed in numerous taxa around the world. Differing rates of phenological shifts across trophic levels have led to concerns that ecological interactions may become increasingly decoupled in time, with potential negative consequences for populations. Despite widespread evidence of phenological change and a broad body of supporting theory, large-scale multitaxa evidence for demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony remains elusive. Using data from a continental-scale bird-banding program, we assess the impact of phenological dynamics on avian breeding productivity in 41 species of migratory and resident North American birds breeding in and around forested areas. We find strong evidence for a phenological optimum where breeding productivity decreases in years with both particularly early or late phenology and when breeding occurs early or late relative to local vegetation phenology. Moreover, we demonstrate that landbird breeding phenology did not keep pace with shifts in the timing of vegetation green-up over a recent 18-y period, even though avian breeding phenology has tracked green-up with greater sensitivity than arrival for migratory species. Species whose breeding phenology more closely tracked green-up tend to migrate shorter distances (or are resident over the entire year) and breed earlier in the season. These results showcase the broadest-scale evidence yet of the demographic impacts of phenological change. Future climate change-associated phenological shifts will likely result in a decrease in breeding productivity for most species, given that bird breeding phenology is failing to keep pace with climate change.
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