ArticlePopulation and development review2023
Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts.
Article in Population and development review, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 38 citations in OpenAlex.
- Levels, trends, and determinants of fertility intentions in Tehran, Iran: the role of educational aspirations, life-course factors, and contextual influences.BMC public health · 2026Article
- The Importance of Motherhood for Early Maternal Bonding and Engagement.Maternal and child health journal · 2026Article
- Fertility intentions among undocumented immigrants: Exploratory results from a mixed-methods survey in California.Sexual & reproductive healthcare : official journal of the Swedish Association of Midwives · 2026Article
- Infertility and Unrealized Ideal Family Size.Population and development review · 2026Article
- Determinants of childbearing intention among Iranian women: Integrating psychological, demographic, and socioeconomic factors.Journal of public health research · 2026Article
- Women's Reproductive Health Conditions and Fertility Goals.Population research and policy review · 2026Article
- Trends and Levels in Men's and Women's Fertility Goals in the United States.Population research and policy review · 2026Article
- Biological parenthood rates among men with sickle cell disease.Blood advances · 2025Article
- Rising House Prices, Falling Fertility? How Rising House Prices Widen Fertility Differences between Tenure Groups.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2025Article
- Trends in Mean Age of Mothers in the United States, 2016 to 2023National vital statistics reports : from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System · 2025Article
- Self-assessed Physical and Mental Health and Fertility Expectations of Men and Women Across the Life Course.Demography · 2025Article
- Challenges and inequity in neonatal and child health: Tip of the iceberg from Global Burden of Disease indicators.Pediatric investigation · 2025Article
- Perceptions of the Future and Pregnancy Avoidance in the U.S.Population research and policy review · 2025Article
- Multiple dimensions of uncertainty in fertility goals: recent trends and patterns in the United States.Genus · 2025Article
- Pandemic-Based Stress and Timing of Fertility Intentions among Partnered Adults.Socius : sociological research for a dynamic worldArticle
- Amish fertility in the United States: Comparative evidence from the American Community Survey and Amish population registries.Demographic researchArticle
- Separating Procedure-related Fears From Future Fertility Concerns Among a Cohort Seeking Abortion Information Online.Women's health issues : official publication of the Jacobs Institute of Women's HealthArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
In the post-Recession era, U.S. fertility rates have continued to fall. It is unclear if these declines are driven by shifts in fertility goals or growing difficulty in achieving goals. In this paper, we construct synthetic cohorts of men and women to examine both cross-cohort and within-cohort changes in fertility goals using multiple cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth. Although more recent cohorts exhibit lower achieved fertility at younger ages than earlier cohorts at the same age, intended parity remains around two children, and intentions to remain childless rarely exceed 15%. There is weak evidence of a growing fertility gap in the early 30s, suggesting more recent cohorts will need considerable childbearing in the 30s and early 40s to 'catch up' to earlier goals, yet low-parity women in their early 40s are decreasingly likely to have unfulfilled fertility desires or intentions to have children. Low-parity men in their early 40s, though, are increasingly likely to intend children. Declines in U.S. fertility thus seem to be largely driven not by changes in early-life fertility goals so much as either a decreasing likelihood of achieving earlier goals or, perhaps, shifts in the preferred timing of fertility that depress period measures.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.