ArticleThe Lancet. Public health2023
Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis.
Article in The Lancet. Public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 52 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
52 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 66 citations in OpenAlex.
- Global coverage of interventions for reduction of injecting drug use-related harm, HIV, viral hepatitis and tuberculosis in prisons and other carceral settings: A systematic review.The International journal on drug policy · 2026Pooled it
- The global epidemiology of injecting drug use, HIV, viral hepatitis and tuberculosis among people who are incarcerated: a multistage systematic review.The International journal on drug policy · 2026Pooled it
- Transmission models of respiratory infections in carceral settings: A systematic review.Epidemics · 2025Pooled it
- Article
- Longitudinal Symptom Transitions Predict Incident Tuberculosis Risk in Serial Active Case Finding.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2026Article
- The Caribbean, Central and South America Network for HIV Epidemiology: 20 Years of HIV Research in the Region.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Post-release tuberculosis risk among formerly incarcerated populations in Lima Peru.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Systematic review of the tuberculosis burden in prisons: Regional patterns and gaps in Latin America and the Caribbean.Global epidemiology · 2026Review
- Comparative impacts and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis systematic screening strategies in prisons in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru: A mathematical modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Interferon gamma release assay and sputum GeneXpert positivity for tuberculosis burden detection in people deprived of liberty in Brazil: a cross-sectional study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Accelerating tuberculosis diagnosis in Mozambican prisons using digital chest X-rays with computer-aided detection: a longitudinal, comprehensive health intervention.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Prisons of Latin America and the Caribbean: A Critical Reflection on Structural Challenges and Gaps.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Routine active case finding in Nigerian penitentiary institutions: comparing yields from digital X-ray with CAD4TB and WHO 4-symptom screening.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Psychological Burden in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: Sociodemographic and Clinical Determinants of Persistent Anxiety and Depression over a Six-Month Follow-Up.Nursing reports (Pavia, Italy) · 2026Article
- Predicting Quality of Life in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: Clinical Burden Meets Emotional Balance in Early Disease.Neurology international · 2025Article
- Diagnostic accuracy of the Cepheid MTB host response assay for the detection of pulmonary TB.IJTLD open · 2025Article
- Longitudinal symptom transitions predict incident tuberculosis risk among persons deprived of liberty in Brazil.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Tuberculosis treatment outcomes after transfer or release from incarceration: a retrospective cohort study from Brazil.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- The Hidden Epidemic: Post-Release Tuberculosis Risk in Formerly Incarcerated Populations.Research square · 2025Article
- Comparative impacts and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis active case-finding strategies in prisons in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru: a mathematical modeling study.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
18 authors at 12 institutions in 9 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPeople who are incarcerated are at high risk of developing tuberculosis. We aimed to estimate the annual global, regional, and national incidence of tuberculosis among incarcerated populations from 2000 to 2019.
methodsWe collected and aggregated data for tuberculosis incidence and prevalence estimates among incarcerated individuals in published and unpublished literature, annual tuberculosis notifications among incarcerated individuals at the country level, and the annual number of incarcerated individuals at the country level. We developed a joint hierarchical Bayesian meta-regression framework to simultaneously model tuberculosis incidence, notifications, and prevalence from 2000 to 2019. Using this model, we estimated trends in absolute tuberculosis incidence and notifications, the incidence and notification rates, and the case detection ratio by year, country, region, and globally.
findingsIn 2019, we estimated a total of 125 105 (95% credible interval [CrI] 93 736-165 318) incident tuberculosis cases among incarcerated individuals globally. The estimated incidence rate per 100 000 person-years overall was 1148 (95% CrI 860-1517) but varied greatly by WHO region, from 793 (95% CrI 430-1342) in the Eastern Mediterranean region to 2242 (1515-3216) in the African region. Global incidence per 100 000 person-years between 2000 and 2012 among incarcerated individuals decreased from 1884 (95% CrI 1394-2616) to 1205 (910-1615); however, from 2013 onwards, tuberculosis incidence per 100 000 person-years was stable, from 1183 (95% CrI 876-1596) in 2013 to 1148 (860-1517) in 2019. In 2019, the global case detection ratio was estimated to be 53% (95% CrI 42-64), the lowest over the study period.
interpretationOur estimates suggest a high tuberculosis incidence rate among incarcerated individuals globally with large gaps in tuberculosis case detection. Tuberculosis in incarcerated populations must be addressed with interventions specifically tailored to improve diagnoses and prevent transmission as a part of the broader global tuberculosis control effort.
fundingNational Institutes of Health.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.