Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37391483›Full record

ArticleCommunications medicine2023

The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and other public health outcomes during the BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge, New York City, April-May 2022.

Saba A Qasmieh, McKaylee M Robertson, Chloe A Teasdale, Sarah G Kulkarni, Heidi E Jones, David A Larsen, John J Dennehy, Margaret McNairy, Luisa N Borrell, Denis Nash

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Communications medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Saba A QasmiehInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health (ISPH), City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY, USA.
McKaylee M RobertsonInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health (ISPH), City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8426-6572
Chloe A TeasdaleInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health (ISPH), City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY, USA.
Sarah G KulkarniInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health (ISPH), City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY, USA.
Heidi E JonesInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health (ISPH), City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY, USA.
David A LarsenDepartment of Public Health, Falk College, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1876-6536
John J DennehyDepartment of Biology, Queens College, City University of New York, Queens, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9678-4529
Margaret McNairyInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health (ISPH), City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY, USA.
Luisa N BorrellDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0560-4853
Denis NashInstitute for Implementation Science in Population Health (ISPH), City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY, USA. denis.nash@sph.cuny.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3280-5386

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRoutine case surveillance data for SARS-CoV-2 are incomplete, unrepresentative, missing key variables of interest, and may be increasingly unreliable for timely surge detection and understanding the true burden of infection.

methodsWe conducted a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of 1030 New York City (NYC) adult residents ≥18 years on May 7-8, 2022. We estimated the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the preceding 14-day period. Respondents were asked about SARS-CoV-2 testing, testing outcomes, COVID-like symptoms, and contact with SARS-CoV-2 cases. SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates were age- and sex-adjusted to the 2020 U.S. POPULATION: We triangulated survey-based prevalence estimates with contemporaneous official SARS-CoV-2 counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, as well as SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations.

resultsWe show that 22.1% (95% CI 17.9-26.2%) of respondents had SARS-CoV-2 infection during the two-week study period, corresponding to ~1.5 million adults (95% CI 1.3-1.8 million). The official SARS-CoV-2 case count during the study period is 51,218. Prevalence is estimated at 36.6% (95% CI 28.3-45.8%) among individuals with co-morbidities, 13.7% (95% CI 10.4-17.9%) among those 65+ years, and 15.3% (95% CI 9.6-23.5%) among unvaccinated persons. Among individuals with a SARS-CoV-2 infection, hybrid immunity (history of both vaccination and infection) is 66.2% (95% CI 55.7-76.7%), 44.1% (95% CI 33.0-55.1%) were aware of the antiviral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 15.1% (95% CI 7.1-23.1%) reported receiving it. Hospitalizations, deaths and SARS-CoV-2 virus concentrations in wastewater remained well below that during the BA.1 surge.

conclusionsOur findings suggest that the true magnitude of NYC's BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge may have been vastly underestimated by routine case counts and wastewater surveillance. Hybrid immunity, bolstered by the recent BA.1 surge, likely limited the severity of the BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge.

Identifiers

PMID37391483
PMCPMC10313770

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.