ArticlePloS one2023
Modeling the future of HIV in Turkey: Cost-effectiveness analysis of improving testing and diagnosis.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 17 citations in OpenAlex.
- HIV Infection HIV/AIDS in Türkiye: Current Challenges and Strategic Solutions.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2026Review
- HIV Seroprevalence and Screening Practices Among Cancer Patients Receiving Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors: A Single-Center Study From Türkiye.Journal of clinical practice and research · 2026Article
- A Retrospective Assessment of HIV Prevalence in the Central Black Sea Region of Türkiye.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Herpes zoster as a missed opportunity for HIV diagnosis: a real-world analysis of testing practices.AIDS research and therapy · 2026Article
- Long-term metabolic and safety profiles of tenofovir alafenamide and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate in ART-naive people living with HIV: a multicenter retrospective study using a mixed-effects model.BMC pharmacology & toxicology · 2025Article
- HIV-related microaggressions and depressive symptoms among people living with HIV: the mediating roles of internalised stigma and coping with shame.Sexually transmitted infections · 2025Article
- Next-generation sequencing of CCR5, CXCR4, and IFNAR1 variants in relation to HIV-1 disease progression and ART response.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Health Economics Evaluation of Bictegravir/Emtricitabine/Tenofovir for a First-Line Treatment of HIV-1 Infection in China.ClinicoEconomics and outcomes research : CEOR · 2025Article
- HIV treatment satisfaction: HIVTSQ-12 factor analysis and associated factors in Türkiye.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Turkey: a modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 6 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
aimsThis study aimed to determine HIV incidence and prevalence in Turkey and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of improving testing and diagnosis in the next 20 years.
backgroundHIV incidence in Turkey has been rapidly increasing in the last decade with a particularly high rate of infection for younger populations, which underscores the urgent need for a robust prevention program and improved testing capacity for HIV.
methodsWe developed a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission and progression among the Turkish population aged 15-64 and assessed the effect of improving testing and diagnosis. The model generated the number of new HIV cases by transmission risk and CD4 level, HIV diagnoses, HIV prevalence, continuum of care, the number of HIV-related deaths, and the expected number of infections prevented from 2020 to 2040. We also explored the cost impact of HIV and the cost-effectiveness of improving testing and diagnosis.
resultsUnder the base case scenario, the model estimated an HIV incidence of 13,462 cases in 2020, with 63% undiagnosed. The number of infections was estimated to increase by 27% by 2040, with HIV incidence in 2040 reaching 376,889 and HIV prevalence 2,414,965 cases. Improving testing and diagnosis to 50%, 70%, and 90%, would prevent 782,789, 2,059,399, and 2,336,564 infections-32%, 85%, and 97% reduction in 20 years, respectively. Improved testing and diagnosis would reduce spending between $1.8 and $8.8 billion.
conclusionsIn the case of no improvement in the current continuum of care, HIV incidence and prevalence will significantly increase over the next 20 years, placing a significant burden on the Turkish healthcare system. However, improving testing and diagnosis could substantially reduce the number of infections, ameliorating the public health and disease burden aspects.
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