SynthesisJournal of the National Cancer Institute2023
Evaluating relapse-free survival as an endpoint for overall survival in adjuvant immunotherapy trials.
Synthesis in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Sex, Timing, and Outcomes of Curative-Intent Immunotherapy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.JAMA network open · 2026Pooled it
- Estimating Long-Term Survivorship Rates Among Patients With Resected Stage III/IV Melanoma: Analyses From CheckMate 238 and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer 18071 Trials.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2025Trial
- Linking early and late endpoints in adjuvant immunotherapy trials: an evaluation of multiple clinical outcomes.The oncologist · 2026Article
- Merkel cell carcinoma immunotherapy: key questions in the era of immune checkpoint blockade.Journal for immunotherapy of cancer · 2026Review
- Frequently asked questions on surrogate endpoints in oncology-opportunities, pitfalls, and the way forward.EClinicalMedicine · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundRelapse-free survival (RFS) has been considered a primary endpoint to assess the effects of immunotherapy in the adjuvant setting among patients with early-stage disease. However, it is not clear whether RFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in this clinical context.
methodsPhase II or III clinical trials of adjuvant immunotherapy that reported hazard ratios on OS and RFS were identified. We used a weighted regression analysis at the arm and trial levels to assess the efficacy of RFS as a surrogate for OS, quantified by the weighted coefficient of determination (R2). Strong correlations (R2 ≥ 0.7) at the arm and trial levels indicated valid surrogacy. The surrogate threshold effect was also evaluated.
resultsFifteen high-quality randomized clinical trials involving 13 715 patients were included. At the arm level, moderate and strong associations were observed between RFS2-year and OS3-year (R2 = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.25 to 0.92) and RFS3-year and OS5-year (R2 = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.38 to 1.00), respectively. At the trial level, a moderate association was observed between effect of treatment on RFS and OS (R2 = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.33 to 0.94). The surrogate threshold effect for RFS was 0.86. Consistent results were confirmed in several sensitivity analyses based on different trial phases, experimental arms, cancer types, and treatment strategies.
conclusionsOur meta-analysis failed to find a clinically strong association between RFS and OS in randomized clinical trials of adjuvant immunotherapy. Our findings challenge the use of RFS as the primary efficacy endpoint and suggest the use of OS in this clinical context.
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