ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2023
Delineating the Seasonality of Varicella and Its Association With Climate in the Tropical Country of Colombia.
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatial-temporal patterns, seasonality, and age-specific trends of varicella in Hangzhou, China, 2019-2024.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Causal inference concepts can guide research into the effects of climate on infectious diseases.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- A time series study of the association between extreme temperature and ozone on varicella incidence.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Immunity to Varicella Zoster Virus in Healthcare Workers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (2024).Vaccines · 2024Review
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundVaricella causes a major health burden in many low- to middle-income countries located in tropical regions. Because of the lack of surveillance data, however, the epidemiology of varicella in these regions remains uncharacterized. In this study, based on an extensive dataset of weekly varicella incidence in children ≤10 during 2011-2014 in 25 municipalities, we aimed to delineate the seasonality of varicella across the diverse tropical climates of Colombia.
methodsWe used generalized additive models to estimate varicella seasonality, and we used clustering and matrix correlation methods to assess its correlation with climate. Furthermore, we developed a mathematical model to examine whether including the effect of climate on varicella transmission could reproduce the observed spatiotemporal patterns.
resultsVaricella seasonality was markedly bimodal, with latitudinal changes in the peaks' timing and amplitude. This spatial gradient strongly correlated with specific humidity (Mantel statistic = 0.412, P = .001) but not temperature (Mantel statistic = 0.077, P = .225). The mathematical model reproduced the observed patterns not only in Colombia but also México, and it predicted a latitudinal gradient in Central America.
conclusionsThese results demonstrate large variability in varicella seasonality across Colombia and suggest that spatiotemporal humidity fluctuations can explain the calendar of varicella epidemics in Colombia, México, and potentially in Central America.
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