Tumor burden score-AFP-albumin-bilirubin grade score predicts the survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection.

purposeThere is little information regarding the overall survival (OS) predictive ability of the combination of tumor burden score (TBS), α-fetoprotein (AFP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, we aimed to develop a model including TBS, AFP, and ALBI grade to predict HCC patient OS following liver resection.

methodsPatients (N = 1556) from six centers were randomly divided 1:1 into training and validation sets. The X-Tile software was used to determine the optimal cutoff values. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated to assess the prognostic ability of the different models.

resultsIn the training set, tumor differentiation, TBS, AFP, ALBI grade, and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were independently related to OS. According to the coefficient values of TBS, AFP, and ALBI grade, we developed the TBS-AFP-ALBI (TAA) score using a simplified point system (0, 2 for low/high TBS, 0, 1 for low/high AFP and 0,1 for ALBI grade 1/2). Patients were further divided into low TAA (TAA ≤ 1), medium TAA (TAA = 2-3), and high TAA (TAA= 4) groups. TAA scores (low: referent; medium, HR = 1.994, 95% CI = 1.492-2.666; high, HR = 2.413, 95% CI = 1.630-3.573) were independently associated with patient survival in the validation set. The TAA scores showed higher AUROCs than BCLC stage for the prediction of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in both the training and validation sets.

conclusionTAA is a simple score that has better OS prediction performance than the BCLC stage in predicting OS for HCC patients after liver resection.