ArticleJournal of diabetes science and technology2025
Development and Validation of an Electronic Health Record-Based Risk Assessment Tool for Hypoglycemia in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.
Article in Journal of diabetes science and technology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundThe recent availability of high-quality data from clinical trials, together with machine learning (ML) techniques, presents exciting opportunities for developing prediction models for clinical outcomes.
methodsAs a proof-of-concept, we translated a hypoglycemia risk model derived from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study into the HypoHazardScore, a risk assessment tool applicable to electronic health record (EHR) data. To assess its performance, we conducted a 16-week clinical study at the University of Minnesota where participants (N = 40) with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) had hypoglycemia assessed prospectively by continuous glucose monitoring (CGM).
resultsThe HypoHazardScore combines 16 risk factors commonly found within the EHR. The HypoHazardScore successfully predicted (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.723) whether participants experienced least one CGM-assessed hypoglycemic event (glucose <54 mg/dL for ≥15 minutes from two CGMs) while significantly correlating with frequency of CGM-assessed hypoglycemic events (r = 0.38) and percent time experiencing CGM-assessed hypoglycemia (r = 0.39). Compared to participants with a low HypoHazardScore (N = 19, score <4, median score of 4), participants with a high HypoHazardScore (N = 21, score ≥4) had more frequent CGM-assessed hypoglycemic events (high: 1.6 ± 2.2 events/week; low: 0.3 ± 0.5 events/week) and experienced more CGM-assessed hypoglycemia (high: 1.4% ± 2.0%; low: 0.2% ± 0.4% time) during the 16-week follow-up.
conclusionsWe demonstrated that a hypoglycemia risk model can be successfully adapted from the ACCORD data to the EHR, with validation by a prospective study using CGM-assessed hypoglycemia. The HypoHazardScore represents a significant advancement toward implementing an EHR-based decision support system that can help reduce hypoglycemia in patients with T2DM.
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