ArticleNature communications2023
Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Do Mobile Phone Surveys Supplement Other Mortality Surveillance Methods? Results From a National Study in Bangladesh.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2026Article
- Using forensic autopsy data to estimate the age-specific infection fatality risk of COVID-19.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- A novel post-mortem pathogen discovery program detects an outbreak of Echovirus E7: Uganda, 2022-2023.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Article
- Parametric survival analysis of long COVID among hospitalized patients in Zambia: A retrospective cohort study on the time to symptoms resolving.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- An assessment of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, a retrospective post-mortem surveillance in 12 districts - Zambia, 2020-2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
- COVID-19 mortality sentinel surveillance at a tertiary referral hospital in Lusaka, Zambia, 2020-2021.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Article
- High SARS-CoV-2 seroincidence but low excess COVID mortality in Sierra Leone in 2020-2022.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
23 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.