Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37379775›Full record

ArticleEpidemics2023

Mumps epidemic dynamics in the United States before vaccination (1923-1932).

Laura W Pomeroy, Senya Magsi, Shannon McGill, Caroline E Wheeler

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemics, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Laura W PomeroyDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Translational Data Analytics Institute, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA. Electronic address: pomeroy.26@osu.edu.
Senya MagsiCollege of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
Shannon McGillCollege of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
Caroline E WheelerComputer & Information Science, College of Arts and Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.

Funding

Evaluating causes of mumps reemergence with computational modelingK01AI146270 · NIAID · OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY · PI POMEROY, LAURA W · 2020 to 2023
$500k
NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI146270
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mumps is a vaccine-preventable, reemerging, and highly transmissible infectious disease. Widespread vaccination dramatically reduced cases; however, case counts have been increasing over the past 20 years. To provide a quantitative overview of historical mumps dynamics that can act as baseline information to help identify causes of mumps reemergence, we analyzed timeseries of cases reported from 1923 to 1932 in the United States. During that time, 239,230 mumps cases were reported in 70 cities. Larger cities reported annual epidemics and smaller cities reported intermittent, sporadic outbreaks. The critical community size above which transmission continuously occurred was likely between 365,583 and 781,188 individuals but could range as high as 3,376,438 individuals. Mumps cases increased as city size increased, suggesting density-dependent transmission. Using a density-dependent SEIR model, we calculated a mean effective reproductive number (R

Indexed as

EpidemicsMumpsBasic Reproduction NumberDisease OutbreaksHumansUnited StatesVaccinationCritical community sizeDensity-dependent transmissionMumps virusPre-vaccination eraR(0)Seasonality

Identifiers

PMID37379775
PMCPMC11057333

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.