Trends in Incidence, Survival and Mortality of Gastric Cancer in the United States: A Population-Based Study, 2001-2015.

backgroundGastric cancer remains one of the leading causes of death, and a burden of public health in the United States (US). The aim of the study was to provide updates to gastric cancer estimates, and analyzed the long-term trends in incidence, survival, and mortality of gastric cancer in the US, which was helpful for the monitoring of the screening program and the prevention strategy.

methodsThe incidence, and long-term trends in incidence, survival, and mortality of gastric cancer in the US from 2001 to 2015 were analyzed. The data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database. Age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated, joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analyses were conducted. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

resultsThe overall age-adjusted incidence of gastric cancer decreased over the study period, with an annual percentage change (APC) of -1.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.1 to 13.3; P < 0.001). The incidence rates leveled off at an earlier age (< 45 years) and creased obviously with age. The age rate deviations increased sharply before the age of 47.5 years (age rate deviation = 0.92; 95% CI = 0.71 to 1.13). The 5-year mortality attributed to gastric cancer declined from 65.98% to 56.29% over the study period. The trend of 5-year mortality attributed to gastric cancer showed no significant fluctuation. The hazard ratio for 5-year all-cause death increased with cancer stage from 1.22 (95% CI = 1.13 to 1.33; P < 0.001) to 4.71 (95% CI = 4.40 to 5.06; P < 0.001).

conclusionDuring the study period, the incidence decreased, while the survival rate increased slightly. Specially, the trend of 5-year mortality attributed to gastric cancer did not vary significantly. The data demonstrated that the prognosis of gastric cancer in the US remained challenging.