California Serogroup Viruses in a Changing Canadian Arctic: A Review.

The Arctic is warming at four times the global rate, changing the diversity, activity and distribution of vectors and associated pathogens. While the Arctic is not often considered a hotbed of vector-borne diseases, Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV) and Snowshoe Hare virus (SSHV) are mosquito-borne zoonotic viruses of the California serogroup endemic to the Canadian North. The viruses are maintained by transovarial transmission in vectors and circulate among vertebrate hosts, both of which are not well characterized in Arctic regions. While most human infections are subclinical or mild, serious cases occur, and both JCV and SSHV have recently been identified as leading causes of arbovirus-associated neurological diseases in North America. Consequently, both viruses are currently recognised as neglected and emerging viruses of public health concern. This review aims to summarise previous findings in the region regarding the enzootic transmission cycle of both viruses. We identify key gaps and approaches needed to critically evaluate, detect, and model the effects of climate change on these uniquely northern viruses. Based on limited data, we predict that (1) these northern adapted viruses will increase their range northwards, but not lose range at their southern limits, (2) undergo more rapid amplification and amplified transmission in endemic regions for longer vector-biting seasons, (3) take advantage of northward shifts of hosts and vectors, and (4) increase bite rates following an increase in the availability of breeding sites, along with phenological synchrony between the reproduction cycle of theorized reservoirs (such as caribou calving) and mosquito emergence.