ArticleOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)2023
European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios.
Article in One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 57 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
57 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 70 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modelling the risk of West Nile virus infection in seven European countries from published serological and case notification data, 2008 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Pooled it
- Zoonotic pathogens in equids in Central Europe: a systematic review.BMC veterinary research · 2025Pooled it
- West Nile Virus Infection in Occupational Settings-A Systematic Review.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Rehabilitation approaches in West Nile Virus survivors: a systematic review.European journal of physical and rehabilitation medicine · 2024Pooled it
- West Nile virus: epidemiology, prevention, clinical features, diagnosis, treatment, and open research questions.Annals of medicine · 2026Review
- Climate change impact on disease emergence and antimicrobial resistance: A perspective on transmission and detection.iScience · 2026Review
- Vector Competence for West Nile Virus Lineage 1 and 2: Temperature Dependency in TemperateMicroorganisms · 2026Article
- Not all West Nile virus lineages behave alike: dose-response differences between lineages 1 and 2.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Infodemiology of West Nile Virus in Greece, 2024-2025, with Descriptive One Health Preparedness Evidence from Crete.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Article
- Fine-scale heterogeneity and local amplification of West Nile virus in urban environments in Berlin.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Ecology of mosquitoes in Scottish wetlands and confirmation of Culex pipiens biotype molestus and pipiens/molestus hybrids in Scotland.Parasites & vectors · 2026Article
- Evaluating the ability of a thermal biology-informed reproduction number to explain patterns of West Nile incidence in Europe.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Human antibodies against West Nile and related orthoflaviviruses.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- West Nile Virus: Seroprevalence and Epidemiological Study in Blood Donors in North Central Anatolia Amid Global Threats.Journal of medical virology · 2026Article
- Diagnosis and Surveillance of West Nile Virus Infection in Horses: Current Methods, Challenges, and Future Directions.Veterinary sciences · 2026Review
- The first outbreak of neuroinvasive West Nile virus infection in Istanbul area within 2019.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- West Nile Virus in Europe: Epidemiology, Vector Ecology, Environmental Drivers, and the Role of Equine Sentinel Surveillance in a One Health Framework.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Scenario-driven shifts in future Usutu and West Nile virus outbreak characteristics in the Netherlands.Scientific reports · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne zoonosis, has emerged as a disease of public health concern in Europe. Recent outbreaks have been attributed to suitable climatic conditions for its vectors favoring transmission. However, to date, projections of the risk for WNV expansion under climate change scenarios is lacking. Here, we estimate the WNV-outbreaks risk for a set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. We delineate the potential risk-areas and estimate the growth in the population at risk (PAR). We used supervised machine learning classifier, XGBoost, to estimate the WNV-outbreak risk using an ensemble climate model and multi-scenario approach. The model was trained by collating climatic, socioeconomic, and reported WNV-infections data (2010-22) and the out-of-sample results (1950-2009, 2023-99) were validated using a novel Confidence-Based Performance Estimation (CBPE) method. Projections of area specific outbreak risk trends, and corresponding population at risk were estimated and compared across scenarios. Our results show up to 5-fold increase in West Nile virus (WNV) risk for 2040-60 in Europe, depending on geographical region and climate scenario, compared to 2000-20. The proportion of disease-reported European land areas could increase from 15% to 23-30%, putting 161 to 244 million people at risk. Across scenarios, Western Europe appears to be facing the largest increase in the outbreak risk of WNV. The increase in the risk is not linear but undergoes periods of sharp changes governed by climatic thresholds associated with ideal conditions for WNV vectors. The increased risk will require a targeted public health response to manage the expansion of WNV with climate change in Europe.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.