ArticleFrontiers in public health2023
Age-period-cohort analysis of pancreatitis epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts for 2044: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 26 citations in OpenAlex.
- Artificial Intelligence in Pancreatic Imaging: A Systematic Review.United European gastroenterology journal · 2025Pooled it
- High-Dimensional Immune Profiling Identifies Circulating NKT-Like Cells Associated With Severity Outcome in Acute Pancreatitis at Disease Onset.Immunology · 2026Article
- Persistence of Mortality-Dominant Pancreatitis Burden Despite Declining Rates, 1990-2023: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2023 Study.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Article
- Burden of non-cancer comorbidities and mortality in chronic pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study.BMJ open gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Divergent associations of phosphate levels with organ failure between ICU and non-ICU populations with acute pancreatitis.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- We Can't Work It Out: The Threat of Pancreatitis to Global Productivity Among Working Age Adults.Digestive diseases and sciences · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burdens of pancreatitis in adults aged ≥65 years from 1992 to 2021: A trends analysis using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.Journal of intensive medicine · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burden and future projections of pancreatitis: A Joinpoint, APC, and ARIMA modeling analysis.Clinical and experimental medicine · 2026Article
- Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemiological trends from 2005 to 2024 and forecasts for 2035 in Sichuan Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Analysis of factors associated with physical activity in patients with acute pancreatitis: a cross-sectional study in China.Frontiers in physiology · 2026Article
- Osmolarity trajectories and outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis in the intensive care unit: group-based trajectory modeling.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- Uncovering new MicroRNAs linked to acute pancreatitis: zeroing in on the protective effect.Hereditas · 2025Article
- Potential Associations Between CT-Derived Muscle Indices and Clinical Outcomes in Acute Pancreatitis.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Article
- Temporal trends in gender, etiology, severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis in a third-tier Chinese city from 2013 to 2021.Annals of medicine · 2025Article
- Temporal Trends of Dengue in India (1990-2021): A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.EcoHealth · 2025Article
- Comprehensive age-period-cohort analysis of global pancreatitis burden and socioeconomic disparities (1990-2021).BMC gastroenterology · 2025Article
- The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Pancreatitis in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2021: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Digestive diseases and sciences · 2025Article
- Global incidence and mortality of pancreatitis in women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2021.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Predictive Value of Several Parameters for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis in a Cohort of 172 Patients.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Objective: Pancreatitis poses a serious medical problem worldwide. This study aims to explore the epidemiological trends of pancreatitis from 1990 to 2019, analyze the association between disease burden and age, period and birth cohort, and subsequently present a forecast of pancreatitis incidence and deaths. Methods: Epidemiologic data were gathered from the Global Health Data Exchange query tool. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to estimate the independent effects of age, period and birth cohort. We also predicted the global epidemiological trends to 2044. Results: Globally, the incident cases and deaths of pancreatitis increased 1.63-and 1.65-fold from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased over the past three decades. The age effect indicates that older people have higher age-specific incidence and death rates. The period effect on incidence and deaths showed downward trends from 1990 to 2019. The cohort effect demonstrated that incidence and death risk peaked in the earlier birth cohort and were lower in the latest birth cohort. Incident cases and deaths of pancreatitis may significantly increase in the next 25 years. The ASIRs were predicted to slightly increase, while the ASDRs were predicted to decrease. Conclusion: Epidemiologic patterns and trends of pancreatitis across age, period and birth cohort may provide novel insight into public health. Limitations of alcohol use and prevention strategies for pancreatitis are necessary to reduce future burden.
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