ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2023
The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on identifying HIV/AIDS cases in China: an interrupted time series study.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Genetic diversity and evolutionary analysis of HIV-1 among migration populations: a five-year cross-sectional molecular epidemiology study.Virus genes · 2026Article
- Enhancing therapy monitoring and effectiveness for HIV patients in China's border regions through a healthcare consortium: an interrupted time series analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- COVID-19 Knowledge, Anxiety, and Access to Voluntary Counseling and Testing Among People With HIV During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cross-Sectional Study.Asian/Pacific Island nursing journal · 2026Article
- Predicting the incidence of syphilis in China using Baidu search index and an ARIMAX model.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Mortality trends and epidemiological characteristics among people living with HIV in Huangshi, China: a time-series analysis (2004-2024).BMC public health · 2026Article
- Burden and trends of decubitus ulcers in East Asia, 1990-2021, with projections to 2031: a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of disease study.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2026Article
- Forecasting monthly AIDS incidence in China via LSTM-CNN parallel fusion: a comparative study of 10 predictive models.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Disease burden of HIV and its behavioral risks among adults aged 20-54 years in China and the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2021: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Statistical modelling and forecasting of HIV and anti-retroviral therapy cases by time-series and machine learning models.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Spatio-temporal pattern and risk factors of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Zhejiang, China, from 2005 to 2022 using R-INLA.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Trends in lower extremity peripheral arterial disease incidence since 1990 and forecasting future statistics using Global Burden of Disease 2021: a time-series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Rapid human movement and dengue transmission in Bangladesh: a spatial and temporal analysis based on different policy measures of COVID-19 pandemic and Eid festival.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
- Influence of the Enterovirus 71 Vaccine and the COVID-19 Pandemic on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China Based on Counterfactual Models: Observational Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Observational
- Enhancing HIV/STI decision-making: challenges and opportunities in leveraging predictive models for individuals, healthcare providers, and policymakers.Journal of translational medicine · 2024Review
- Spatiotemporal Analysis of HIV/AIDS Incidence in China From 2009 to 2019 and Its Association With Socioeconomic Factors: Geospatial Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Temporal and Spatial Trends in HIV Positivity Rate for VCT Clinics - China, 2015-2022.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- Study on Univariate Modeling and Prediction Methods Using Monthly HIV Incidence and Mortality Cases in China.HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2024Article
- Longitudinal trajectories of weight changes among people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy: A group-based study.iScience · 2023Article
- Interruption time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average model: evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemic trend of gonorrhea in China.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Take action to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV prevention and control.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant global public health challenges, and impacted HIV testing and reporting worldwide. We aimed to estimate the impact of COVID-19 polices on identifying HIV/AIDS cases in China from 2020 to 2022. Methods: We used an interrupted time series (ITS) design and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average intervention (SARIMA Intervention) model. Monthly reported data on HIV/AIDS cases were extracted from the National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of China from January 2004 to August 2022. Data on Stringency Index (SI) and Economic Support Index (ESI) from January 22, 2020 to August 31, 2022 were extracted from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). Using these, a SARIMA-Intervention model was constructed to evaluate the association between COVID-19 polices and monthly reported HIV/AIDS case numbers from January 2004 to August 2022 using Findings: The SARIMA-Intervention model indicated HIV/AIDS monthly reported cases were inversely and significantly correlated with stricter lockdown and COVID-19 related polices (Coefficient for SI = -231.24, 95% CI: -383.17, -79.32) but not with economic support polices (Coefficient for ESI = 124.27, 95% CI: -309.84, 558.38). APEs of the SARIMA-Intervention model for prediction of HIV/AIDS cases from January 2022 through August 2022, were -2.99, 5.08, -13.64, -34.04, -2.76, -1.52, -1.37 and -2.47 respectively, indicating good accuracy and underreporting of cases during COVID-19. The counterfactual model estimates between January 2020 and August 2022 an additional 1314 HIV/AIDS cases should have been established monthly if COVID-19 hadn't occurred. Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic influenced the allocation and acquisition of medical resources which impacted accurate monthly reporting of HIV in China. Interventions that promote continuous HIV testing and ensure the adequate provision of HIV services including remote delivery of HIV testing services (HIV self-testing) and online sexual counseling services are necessary during pandemics in future. Funding: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (The grant number: 2020YFC0846300) and Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, USA (The grant number: G11TW010941).
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