Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37357233›Full record

ArticlePharmacoEconomics2023

Development and Validation of txSim: A Model of Advanced Lung Cancer Treatment in Australia.

Preston Ngo, Deme Karikios, David Goldsbury, Stephen Wade, Zarnie Lwin, Brett G M Hughes, Kwun M Fong, Karen Canfell, Marianne Weber

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in PharmacoEconomics, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Preston NgoThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, 153 Dowling St, Woolloomooloo, Sydney, NSW, 2011, Australia. preston.ngo@nswcc.org.au.ORCID 0000-0001-5453-0734
Deme KarikiosNepean Hospital, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
David GoldsburyThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, 153 Dowling St, Woolloomooloo, Sydney, NSW, 2011, Australia.
Stephen WadeThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, 153 Dowling St, Woolloomooloo, Sydney, NSW, 2011, Australia.
Zarnie LwinRoyal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Brett G M HughesRoyal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Kwun M FongThe Prince Charles Hospital, Chermside, QLD, Australia.
Karen CanfellThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, 153 Dowling St, Woolloomooloo, Sydney, NSW, 2011, Australia.
Marianne WeberThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, 153 Dowling St, Woolloomooloo, Sydney, NSW, 2011, Australia.

Funding

Department of Health and Aged Care, Australian Government MRF1200535
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

objectiveSince 2016, new therapies have transformed the standard of care for lung cancer, creating a need for up-to-date evidence for health economic modelling. We developed a discrete event simulation of advanced lung cancer treatment to provide estimates of survival outcomes and healthcare costs in the Australian setting that can be updated as new therapies are introduced.

methodsTreatment for advanced lung cancer was modelled under a clinician-specified treatment algorithm for Australia in 2022. Prevalence of lung cancer subpopulations was extracted from cBioPortal and the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study, a large prospective cohort linked to cancer registrations. All costs were from the health system perspective for the year 2020. Pharmaceutical and molecular diagnostic costs were obtained from public reimbursement fees, while other healthcare costs were obtained from health system costs in the 45 and Up Study. Treatment efficacy was obtained from clinical trials and observational study data. Costs and survival were modelled over a 10-year horizon. Uncertainty intervals were generated with probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Overall survival predictions were validated against real-world studies.

resultsUnder the 2022 treatment algorithm, estimated mean survival and costs for advanced lung cancer 10 years post-diagnosis were 16.4 months (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 14.7-18.1) and AU$116,069 (95% UI: $107,378-$124,933). Survival and costs were higher assuming optimal treatment utilisation rates (20.5 months, 95% UI: 19.1-22.5; $154,299, 95% UI: $146,499-$161,591). The model performed well in validation, with good agreement between predicted and observed survival in real-world studies.

conclusionsSurvival improvements for advanced lung cancer have been accompanied by growing treatment costs. The estimates reported here can be used for budget planning and economic evaluations of interventions across the spectrum of cancer control.

Indexed as

Lung NeoplasmsAustraliaCost-Benefit AnalysisHealth Care CostsHumansProspective StudiesTreatment Outcome

Identifiers

PMID37357233
PMCPMC10570197

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.