ArticleMalaria journal2023
El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans.
Article in Malaria journal, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The burden of malaria in East Africa: prevalence, risk factors, and control strategies.Malaria journal · 2025Pooled it
- Climatic drivers of the 2024 malaria outbreak in two neighbouring districts in northeastern India and its corridor: The indirect role of El Niño.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Artificial intelligence for climate-health early warning systems in the Horn of Africa: opportunities, challenges, and a roadmap for action.Globalization and health · 2026Article
- High-AltitudeOpen forum infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Malaria in the 21st Century: Global Disease Burden, Epidemiological Insights, and Strategic Control Approaches.Biology · 2026Review
- A six years trend analysis of malaria prevalence in Central Ethiopia Region.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Institutional quality, aid flows, and malaria burden: a geospatial analysis of sub-Saharan Africa.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Bionomics of Anopheles stephensi across the urban-rural landscapes of Eastern Ethiopia.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Impact of Global Climate-Change on Ecology ofIranian journal of public health · 2025Review
- Impact of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa: A scoping review of literature.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Review
- Integrating Surveillance and Climate Data for Cholera Early Warning in Ethiopia.Annals of global health · 2025Article
- Waning success: a 2013-2022 spatial and temporal trend analysis of malaria in Ethiopia.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
- Larval source management in Ethiopia: modelling to assess its effectiveness in curbing malaria surge in dire Dawa and Batu Towns.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Analysing the six-year malaria trends at Metehara Health Centre in Central Ethiopia: the impact of resurgence on the 2030 elimination goals.Malaria journal · 2024Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundEthiopia has a history of climate related malaria epidemics. An improved understanding of malaria-climate interactions is needed to inform malaria control and national adaptation plans.
methodsMalaria-climate associations in Ethiopia were assessed using (a) monthly climate data (1981-2016) from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA), (b) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the eastern Pacific, Indian Ocean and Tropical Atlantic and (c) historical malaria epidemic information obtained from the literature. Data analysed spanned 1950-2016. Individual analyses were undertaken over relevant time periods. The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal and spatial patterns of rainfall and minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) was explored using NMA online Maprooms. The relationship of historic malaria epidemics (local or widespread) and concurrent ENSO phases (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) and climate conditions (including drought) was explored in various ways. The relationships between SSTs (ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and Tropical Atlantic), rainfall, Tmin, Tmax and malaria epidemics in Amhara region were also explored.
resultsEl Niño events are strongly related to higher Tmax across the country, drought in north-west Ethiopia during the July-August-September (JAS) rainy season and unusually heavy rain in the semi-arid south-east during the October-November-December (OND) season. La Niña conditions approximate the reverse. At the national level malaria epidemics mostly occur following the JAS rainy season and widespread epidemics are commonly associated with El Niño events when Tmax is high, and drought is common. In the Amhara region, malaria epidemics were not associated with ENSO, but with warm Tropical Atlantic SSTs and higher rainfall.
conclusionMalaria-climate relationships in Ethiopia are complex, unravelling them requires good climate and malaria data (as well as data on potential confounders) and an understanding of the regional and local climate system. The development of climate informed early warning systems must, therefore, target a specific region and season when predictability is high and where the climate drivers of malaria are sufficiently well understood. An El Niño event is likely in the coming years. Warming temperatures, political instability in some regions, and declining investments from international donors, implies an increasing risk of climate-related malaria epidemics.
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