ArticleScience advances2023
Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022.
Article in Science advances, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Long Arm of Childhood Policy: Historical Schooling Laws and COVID-19 Pandemic-era Mortality.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2026Article
- Applying machine learning to identify unrecognized COVID-19 deaths recorded as other causes of death in the United States.Science advances · 2026Article
- Representation in science and trust in scientists in the USA.Nature human behaviour · 2026Article
- Trends in maternal mortality rates by state, United States, 2018 to 2023.American journal of obstetrics and gynecology · 2026Article
- Changing socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence and case fatality rates of COVID-19 in Germany, March 2020 through May 2022: an ecological study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Spatial and demographic heterogeneity in excess mortality in the United States, 2020-2023: a multimodel approach.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Stability and Volatility in the Contextual Predictors of Working-Age Mortality in the United States.Journal of health and social behavior · 2025Article
- US-born and foreign-born life expectancy by race and Hispanic origin before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2025Article
- Evaluation of Mortality in Users of Pimavanserin Compared with Other Atypical Antipsychotics in Patients with Parkinson's Disease Psychosis: An Update.Drug safety · 2025Article
- Pre-COVID-19 Geographic Inequalities in Non-Hispanic Black US Life Expectancy, 1990 to 2019.Population and development review · 2025Article
- Metropolitan/nonmetropolitan differences of the impact of COVID-19 on cancer survivors' care.The Journal of rural health : official journal of the American Rural Health Association and the National Rural Health Care Association · 2025Article
- Real-time monitoring of excess mortality under a new endemic regime.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Scaling COVID-19 rates with population size in the United States.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Pregnancy-Associated Mortality During the Pandemic: Disparities by Rurality.American journal of preventive medicine · 2025Article
- Article
- Excess deaths associated with COVID-19 by rurality and demographic factors in the United States.The Journal of rural health : official journal of the American Rural Health Association and the National Rural Health Care Association · 2024Article
- Excess Mortality as a Tool to Monitor the Evolution of Health Emergencies: Choices, Challenges, and Future Directions.American journal of public health · 2024Article
- Trends and disparities in deaths among young persons in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic.Annals of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Article
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Abstract
Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the COVID-19 pandemic's mortality impact. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating factors, and inform response efforts. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,179,024 excess deaths occurred during the first 2 years of the pandemic (first: 634,830; second: 544,194). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties but increased in nonmetropolitan counties. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeastern counties, nonmetropolitan Southern counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality by July 2021. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemic's rural impact grows.
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