Predictive Population Dynamics of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella enterica on Plants: a Mechanistic Mathematical Model Based on Weather Parameters and Bacterial State.

Weather affects key aspects of bacterial behavior on plants but has not been extensively investigated as a tool to assess risk of crop contamination with human foodborne pathogens. A novel mechanistic model informed by weather factors and bacterial state was developed to predict population dynamics on leafy vegetables and tested against published data tracking Escherichia coli O157:H7 (EcO157) and Salmonella enterica populations on lettuce and cilantro plants. The model utilizes temperature, radiation, and dew point depression to characterize pathogen growth and decay rates. Additionally, the model incorporates the population level effect of bacterial physiological state dynamics in the phyllosphere in terms of the duration and frequency of specific weather parameters. The model accurately predicted EcO157 and S. enterica population sizes on lettuce and cilantro leaves in the laboratory under various conditions of temperature, relative humidity, light intensity, and cycles of leaf wetness and dryness. Importantly, the model successfully predicted EcO157 population dynamics on 4-week-old romaine lettuce plants under variable weather conditions in nearly all field trials. Prediction of initial EcO157 population decay rates after inoculation of 6-week-old romaine plants in the same field study was better than that of long-term survival. This suggests that future augmentation of the model should consider plant age and species morphology by including additional physical parameters. Our results highlight the potential of a comprehensive weather-based model in predicting contamination risk in the field. Such a modeling approach would additionally be valuable for timing field sampling in quality control to ensure the microbial safety of produce.