Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37346096›Full record

ArticleInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2023

Inference of age-dependent case-fatality ratios for seasonal influenza virus subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 and B lineages using data from the Netherlands.

Scott A McDonald, Anne C Teirlinck, Mariette Hooiveld, Liselotte van Asten, Adam Meijer, Marit de Lange, Arianne B van Gageldonk-Lafeber, Jacco Wallinga

Abstract read
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Article in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Epidemic evolutionarily stable strategies within an age-structured host population.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Scott A McDonaldCentre for Infectious Disease Control National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) Bilthoven The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-0788-6011
Anne C TeirlinckCentre for Infectious Disease Control National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) Bilthoven The Netherlands.
Mariette HooiveldNivel Utrecht The Netherlands.
Liselotte van AstenCentre for Infectious Disease Control National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) Bilthoven The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-4123-7595
Adam MeijerCentre for Infectious Disease Control National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) Bilthoven The Netherlands.
Marit de LangeCentre for Infectious Disease Control National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) Bilthoven The Netherlands.
Arianne B van Gageldonk-LafeberCentre for Infectious Disease Control National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) Bilthoven The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-0342-2087
Jacco WallingaCentre for Infectious Disease Control National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) Bilthoven The Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Despite the known relatively high disease burden of influenza, data are lacking regarding a critical epidemiological indicator, the case-fatality ratio. Our objective was to infer age-group and influenza (sub)type specific values by combining modelled estimates of symptomatic incidence and influenza-attributable mortality. Methods: The setting was the Netherlands, 2011/2012 through 2019/2020 seasons. Sentinel surveillance data from general practitioners and laboratory testing were synthesised to supply age-group specific estimates of incidence of symptomatic infection, and ecological additive modelling was used to estimate influenza-attributable deaths. These were combined in an Bayesian inferential framework to estimate case-fatality ratios for influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, per 5-year age-group. Results: Case-fatality estimates were highest for influenza A(H3N2) followed by influenza B and then A(H1N1)pdm09 and were highest for the 85+ years age-group, at 4.76% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.52-5.01%) for A(H3N2), followed by influenza B at 4.08% (95% CrI: 3.77-4.39%) and A(H1N1)pdm09 at 2.51% (95% CrI: 2.09-2.94%). For 55-59 through 85+ years, the case-fatality risk was estimated to double with every 3.7 years of age. Conclusions: These estimated case-fatality ratios, per influenza sub(type) and per age-group, constitute valuable information for public health decision-making, for assessing the retrospective and prospective value of preventative interventions such as vaccination and for health economic evaluations.

Indexed as

Influenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanInfluenza VaccinesBayes TheoremHumansInfluenza A Virus, H3N2 SubtypeNetherlandsProspective StudiesRetrospective StudiesSeasonsInfluenza Vaccinescase fatality rateinfluenza A virus, H1N1 subtypeinfluenza A virus, H3N2 subtypeinfluenza B virusNetherlandsseasons

Identifiers

PMID37346096
PMCPMC10279999

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.