Projecting global oil palm expansion under zero-deforestation commitments: Direct and indirect land use change impacts.

Floris Leijten, Uris Lantz C Baldos, Justin A Johnson, Sarah Sim, Peter H Verburg

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in iScience, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

1citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

Emissions leakage and economic losses may undermine deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions.Nature communications · 2025
Article

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Floris LeijtenEnvironmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Uris Lantz C BaldosDepartment of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, 403 West State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA.

Justin A JohnsonInstitute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

Sarah SimSafety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Unilever R&D, Colworth Science Park, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, UK.

Peter H VerburgEnvironmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In the last three decades, global production of oil palm has boomed, which has partly come at the expense of tropical rainforests. Recognizing this, many companies operating in the palm oil industry have committed to eliminate deforestation from their operations, often referred to as zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs). Here, we estimate that if ZDCs are fully adopted and enforced across all sectors and geographies, the global extent of oil palm plantations may be 11 M ha or 40% smaller in 2030 than in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario that assumes no compliance with ZDCs. As a result of such land-sparing effects, we estimate that 96 M ha of forests are saved from conversion, of which, 17% would otherwise have been converted (directly or indirectly) due to expanding oil palm plantations. Overall, these figures suggest that ZDCs have the potential to deliver major environmental benefits if they are fully adopted and enforced.

Indexed as

Agricultural scienceEnvironmental analysisEnvironmental managementEnvironmental policyLand use

Identifiers

PMID37332602

DOI10.1016/j.isci.2023.106971

PMCPMC10275959

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.