ArticleBMC infectious diseases2023
Interrupted time series analysis using the ARIMA model of the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rate of notifiable communicable diseases in China.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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15 citing papers in PubMed, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Malaria amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Gabon: an application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models within an interrupted time series (ITS) framework to hospital-based data.International journal of epidemiology · 2025Observational
- The impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in Botswana using an interrupted time series analysis.Injury epidemiology · 2025Article
- Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on HIV and hepatitis B testing in Western Iran: insights from an interrupted time series analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Google Trends Analysis of Interest in Smoking Cessation, Treatment Options, and Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems Following Tax Increase and Introduction of Pictorial Health Warnings in Germany.Tobacco use insights · 2025Article
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- Trend and forecast of measles disease, in East Gojjam Zone, Amhara Region, Northwest Ethiopia, 2023: a crossectional study.BMC research notes · 2024Article
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- Consumption Trends of Antifungal and Antiprotozoal Agents for Human Systemic Use in Kazakhstan from 2017 to 2023.Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Development of a novel dynamic nosocomial infection risk management method for COVID-19 in outpatient settings.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Assessing the effectiveness of the expanded hepatitis A vaccination program in China: an interrupted time series design.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on epidemic trend of hepatitis C in Henan Province assessed by interrupted time series analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Predicting pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in China using Baidu search index: an ARIMAX model approach.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2023Article
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5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in China is ongoing. Some studies have shown that the incidence of respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases in 2020 decreased significantly compared with previous years. Interrupted time series (ITS) is a time series analysis method that evaluates the impact of intervention measures on outcomes and can control the original regression trend of outcomes before and after the intervention. This study aimed to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rate of notifiable communicable diseases using ITS in China.
methodsNational data on the incidence rate of communicable diseases in 2009-2021 were obtained from the National Health Commission website. Interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models was used to analyse the changes in the incidence rate of infectious diseases before and after the COVID-19 epidemic.
resultsThere was a significant short-term decline in the incidence rates of respiratory infectious diseases and enteric infectious diseases (step values of -29.828 and - 8.237, respectively), which remained at a low level for a long time after the decline. There was a short-term decline in the incidence rates of blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases (step = -3.638), which tended to recover to previous levels in the long term (ramp = 0.172). There was no significant change in the incidence rate of natural focus diseases or arboviral diseases before and after the epidemic.
conclusionThe COVID-19 epidemic had strong short-term and long-term effects on respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases and short-term control effects on blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases. Our methods for the prevention and control of COVID-19 can be used for the prevention and control of other notifiable communicable diseases, especially respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases.
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