Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37311588›Full record

Observational studyBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2023

Breast cancer mortality in 500 000 women with early invasive breast cancer diagnosed in England, 1993-2015: population based observational cohort study.

Carolyn Taylor, Paul McGale, Jake Probert, John Broggio, Jackie Charman, Sarah C Darby, Amanda J Kerr, Timothy Whelan, David J Cutter, Gurdeep Mannu and 1 more

Erratum issuedAbstract readObservational Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 80 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
80citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

80 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  10. Mapping the landscape of Chinese patent medicines in breast cancer: a multi-database bibliometric analysis (1991-2025).Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2026
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  15. Bugs as drugs: parasite biomolecules as novel therapeutics against breast cancer.American journal of physiology. Cell physiology · 2026
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20 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Carolyn TaylorNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK carolyn.taylor@ndph.ox.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-1962-6989
Paul McGaleNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Jake ProbertNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
John BroggioNational Disease Registration Service (NDRS), NHS England, Birmingham, UK.
Jackie CharmanNational Disease Registration Service (NDRS), NHS England, Birmingham, UK.
Sarah C DarbyNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Amanda J KerrNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Timothy WhelanDepartment of Oncology, McMaster University and Juravinski Cancer Centre, Hamilton, ON Canada.
David J CutterNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Gurdeep MannuNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
David DodwellNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Funding

Cancer Research UK RCCCSF-NOV22/100002
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo describe long term breast cancer mortality among women with a diagnosis of breast cancer in the past and estimate absolute breast cancer mortality risks for groups of patients with a recent diagnosis.

designPopulation based observational cohort study.

settingRoutinely collected data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service.

participantsAll 512 447 women registered with early invasive breast cancer (involving only breast and possibly axillary nodes) in England during January 1993 to December 2015, with follow-up to December 2020.

main outcome measuresAnnual breast cancer mortality rates and cumulative risks by time since diagnosis, calendar period of diagnosis, and nine characteristics of patients and tumours.

resultsFor women with a diagnosis made within each of the calendar periods 1993-99, 2000-04, 2005-09, and 2010-15, the crude annual breast cancer mortality rate was highest during the five years after diagnosis and then declined. For any given time since diagnosis, crude annual breast cancer mortality rates and risks decreased with increasing calendar period. Crude five year breast cancer mortality risk was 14.4% (95% confidence interval 14.2% to 14.6%) for women with a diagnosis made during 1993-99 and 4.9% (4.8% to 5.0%) for women with a diagnosis made during 2010-15. Adjusted annual breast cancer mortality rates also decreased with increasing calendar period in nearly every patient group, by a factor of about three in oestrogen receptor positive disease and about two in oestrogen receptor negative disease. Considering just the women with a diagnosis made during 2010-15, cumulative five year breast cancer mortality risk varied substantially between women with different characteristics: it was <3% for 62.8% (96 085/153 006) of women but ≥20% for 4.6% (6962/153 006) of women.

conclusionsThese five year breast cancer mortality risks for patients with a recent diagnosis may be used to estimate breast cancer mortality risks for patients today. The prognosis for women with early invasive breast cancer has improved substantially since the 1990s. Most can expect to become long term cancer survivors, although for a few the risk remains appreciable.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsBreastCohort StudiesEnglandFemaleHumansReceptors, EstrogenReceptors, Estrogen

Identifiers

PMID37311588
PMCPMC10261971

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.