Genomic prediction using training population design in interspecific soybean populations.

Agronomically important traits generally have complex genetic architecture, where many genes have a small and largely additive effect. Genomic prediction has been demonstrated to increase genetic gain and efficiency in plant breeding programs beyond marker-assisted selection and phenotypic selection. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of allelic origin, marker density, training population size, and cross-validation schemes on the accuracy of genomic prediction models in an interspecific soybean nested association mapping (NAM) panel. Three cross-validation schemes were used: (a) Within-Family (WF): training population and predictions are made exclusively within each family; (b) Across All families (AF): all the individuals from the three families were randomly assigned to either the training or validation set; (c) Leave one Family out (LFO): each family is predicted using a training set that contains the other two families. Predictive abilities increased with training population size up to 350 individuals, but no significant gains were noted beyond 250 individuals in the training population. The number of markers had a limited impact on the observed predictive ability across traits; increasing markers used in the model above 1000 revealed no significant increases in prediction accuracy. Predictive abilities for AF were not significantly different from the WF method, and predictive abilities across populations for the WF method had a range of 0.58 to 0.70 for maturity, protein, meal, and oil. Our results also showed encouraging prediction accuracies for grain yield (0.58-0.69) using the WF method. Partitioning genomic prediction between Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11032-021-01203-6.