ArticleCanadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique2023
Future temperature-related excess mortality under climate change and population aging scenarios in Canada.
Article in Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The effect of climate mitigation and adaptation policies on health and health inequalities: a systematic review.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2025Pooled it
- Reducing the Carbon Footprint of Hand Surgery: An Environmental Analysis of the Wide Awake Local Anesthesia No Tourniquet Approach for Pediatric Trigger Thumb Release.Journal of hand surgery global online · 2026Article
- A Comparative Case Study of Collaborative Governance for Intersectoral Extreme Heat Response in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, Canada.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Exploring the local impacts of heat on mortality: A small-area spatial analysis of Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, Canada.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2026Article
- Future temperature-related mortality in various climate change and adaptation scenarios in Finland.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- The differential effect of ambient temperature on age-specific and sex-specific mortality in the 300 largest cities of Russia, 2000-19: a first national time-series study.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2025Article
- Historical and future heat-related mortality in Portugal's Alentejo region.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Non-optimal temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity burden by cause, age and sex under climate and population change scenarios: a nationwide modelling study in Japan.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- A new chapter in the Canadian Journal of Public Health.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2024Article
- Tropical cyclone-specific mortality risks and the periods of concern: A multicountry time-series study.PLoS medicine · 2024Article
- Climate change and its impact on children and adolescents sleep.Jornal de pediatriaReview
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveClimate change is expected to increase global temperatures. How temperature-related mortality risk will change is not completely understood, and how future demographic changes will affect temperature-related mortality needs to be clarified. We evaluate temperature-related mortality across Canada until 2099, accounting for age groups and scenarios of population growth.
methodsWe used daily counts of non-accidental mortality for 2000 to 2015 for all 111 health regions across Canada, incorporating in the study both urban and rural areas. A two-part time series analysis was used to estimate associations between mean daily temperatures and mortality. First, current and future daily mean temperature time series simulations were developed from Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from past and projected climate change scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Next, excess mortality due to heat and cold and the net difference were projected to 2099, also accounting for different regional and population aging scenarios.
resultsFor 2000 to 2015, we identified 3,343,311 non-accidental deaths. On average, a net increase of 17.31% (95% eCI: 13.99, 20.62) in temperature-related excess mortality under a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario is expected for Canada in 2090-2099, which represents a greater burden than a scenario that assumed strong levels of greenhouse gas mitigation policies (net increase of 3.29%; 95% eCI: 1.41, 5.17). The highest net increase was observed among people aged 65 and over, and the largest increases in both net and heat- and cold-related mortality were observed in population scenarios that incorporated the highest rates of aging.
conclusionCanada may expect net increases in temperature-related mortality under a higher emissions climate change scenario, compared to one assuming sustainable development. Urgent action is needed to mitigate future climate change impacts.
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