ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
Anthropogenic climate change impacts exacerbate summer forest fires in California.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 136 citations in OpenAlex.
- The effects of maternal wildfire exposure: a 28-year longitudinal study of Chile wildfires and neonatal outcomes.Journal of perinatology : official journal of the California Perinatal Association · 2026Article
- Impacts of long-term climate change on human health: a global scoping review of quantitative research.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Heatwaves enable wildfire activity in the western United States.Science advances · 2026Article
- Association between wildfire smoke exposure and pediatric emergency department visits for headache.Headache · 2026Article
- A snow-fire bridge mechanism for the 2025 Southern California winter wildfire.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The emerging human fingerprint on global extreme fire weather.Science advances · 2026Article
- Evaluation of Smoke Exposure Risk from January 2025 Los Angeles Wildfires Using Crowdsourced Data.ACS ES&T air · 2026Article
- How much of the forest sink is passive? Case of the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- FF-Mamba-YOLO: An SSM-Based Benchmark for Forest Fire Detection in UAV Remote Sensing Images.Journal of imaging · 2026Article
- Influence of global climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States under recent and future climates.Climate dynamics · 2026Article
- Large role of anthropogenic climate change in driving smoke concentrations across the western United States from 1992 to 2020.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Effects of Multiple Wildfire Smoke Pollutants (PMGeoHealth · 2025Article
- Hydroclimatic Rebound Drives Extreme Fire in California's Non-Forested Ecosystems.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Benchmarking performance of annual burn probability modeling against subsequent wildfire activity in California.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Convective potential and fuel availability complement near-surface weather in regulating global wildfire activity.Science advances · 2025Article
- Exacerbating risk in human-ignited large fires over western United States due to lower flammability thresholds and greenhouse gas emissions.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the Iberian Peninsula in recent years.NPJ climate and atmospheric science · 2025Article
- Megafire smoke exposure jeopardizes tree carbohydrate reserves and yield.Nature plants · 2024Article
- Robust differential gene expression patterns in the prefrontal cortex of male mice exposed to an occupationally relevant dose of laboratory-generated wildfire smoke.Toxicological sciences : an official journal of the Society of Toxicology · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Record-breaking summer forest fires have become a regular occurrence in California. Observations indicate a fivefold increase in summer burned area (BA) in forests in northern and central California during 1996 to 2021 relative to 1971 to 1995. While the higher temperature and increased dryness have been suggested to be the leading causes of increased BA, the extent to which BA changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic climate change remains unresolved. Here, we develop a climate-driven model of summer BA evolution in California and combine it with natural-only and historical climate simulations to assess the importance of anthropogenic climate change on increased BA. Our results indicate that nearly all the observed increase in BA is due to anthropogenic climate change as historical model simulations accounting for anthropogenic forcing yield 172% (range 84 to 310%) more area burned than simulations with natural forcing only. We detect the signal of combined historical forcing on the observed BA emerging in 2001 with no detectable influence of the natural forcing alone. In addition, even when considering fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks, a 3 to 52% increase in BA relative to the last decades is expected in the next decades (2031 to 2050), highlighting the need for proactive adaptations.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.