ArticlePLoS computational biology2023
Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Nonlinear effects of noise on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of climate and control interventions on spatio-temporal malaria dynamics using a stochastic metapopulation model.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Institutional quality, aid flows, and malaria burden: a geospatial analysis of sub-Saharan Africa.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Comprehensive genomic study of Plasmodium falciparum in Sierra leone: genetic variation and resistance patterns.BMC genomics · 2025Article
- Modeling Intraday Aedes-human exposure dynamics enhances dengue risk prediction.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Climate Change and Malaria: A Call for Robust Analytics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Spatial scales of COVID-19 transmission in Mexico.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- À la carte: how mosquitoes choose their blood meals.Trends in parasitology · 2024Review
- Unravelling the mosquito-haemosporidian parasite-bird host network in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula: insights into malaria infections, mosquito community and feeding preferences.Parasites & vectors · 2023Article
- Life expectancy of Anopheles funestus is double that of Anopheles arabiensis in southeast Tanzania based on mark-release-recapture method.Scientific reports · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
16 authors at 10 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework-human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats-interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the "vectorial capacity matrix," a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An [Formula: see text] package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.