Understanding the impact of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J. E. Smith) leaf damage on maize yields.

Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J. E. Smith), a serious pest of maize and other cereals, recently invaded the Old World potentially threatening the food security and incomes of millions of smallholder farmers. Being able to assess the impacts of a pest on yields is fundamental to developing Integrated Pest Management (IPM) approaches. Hence, working with an early maturing, medium maturing and late maturing variety, we inoculated maize plants with 2nd instar S. frugiperda larvae at V5, V8, V12, VT and R1 growth stages to investigate the effects of FAW induced damage on yield. Different plants were inoculated 0-3 times and larvae were removed after 1 or 2 weeks to generate a wide range of damage profiles. We scored plants for leaf damage at 3, 5 and 7 weeks after emergence (WAE) using the 9 point Davis scale. While at harvest we assessed ear damage (1-9 scale), and recorded plant height and grain yield per plant. We used Structural Equation Models to assess the direct effects of leaf damage on yield and indirect effects via plant height. For the early and medium maturing varieties leaf damage at 3 and 5 WAE, respectively, had significant negative linear effects on grain yield. In the late maturing variety, leaf damage at 7 WAE had an indirect effect on yield through a significant negative linear effect on plant height. However, despite the controlled screenhouse conditions, in all three varieties leaf damage explained less than 3% of the variation in yield at the plant level. Overall, these results indicate that S. frugiperda induced leaf damage has a slight but detectable impact on yield at a specific plant developmental stage, and our models will contribute to the development of decision-support tools for IPM. However, given the low average yields obtained by smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa and the relatively low levels of FAW induced leaf damage recorded in most areas, IPM strategies should focus on interventions aimed at improving plant vigour (e.g. through integrated soil fertility management) and the role of natural enemies, as these are likely to result in greater yield gains at lower cost than a focus on FAW control.