ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2023
Forecast for peak infections in the second wave of the Omicron after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in the mainland of China.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first trimester leads to profound immune dysregulation at the maternal-fetal interface despite limited virus detection in placental tissues.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Epidemiological shift and clinical characteristics of rhinovirus genotypes in acute respiratory tract infection cases in Kunming, China, from 2019 to 2023.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Article
- Dynamic changes in the circulation of respiratory pathogens in children during and after the containment of the 2019 coronavirus disease pandemic in Kunming, China.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2024Article
- Sleep disorder experienced by healthcare nurses after terminating Zero-COVID-19 policy.BMC nursing · 2024Article
- An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
On December 7, 2022, the Chinese government optimized the current epidemic prevention and control policy, and no longer adopted the zero-COVID policy and mandatory quarantine measures. Based on the above policy changes, this paper establishes a compartment dynamics model considering age distribution, home isolation and vaccinations. Parameter estimation was performed using improved least squares and Nelder-Mead simplex algorithms combined with modified case data. Then, using the estimated parameter values to predict a second wave of the outbreak, the peak of severe cases will reach on 8 May 2023, the number of severe cases will reach 206,000. Next, it is proposed that with the extension of the effective time of antibodies obtained after infection, the peak of severe cases in the second wave of the epidemic will be delayed, and the final scale of the disease will be reduced. When the effectiveness of antibodies is 6 months, the severe cases of the second wave will peak on July 5, 2023, the number of severe cases is 194,000. Finally, the importance of vaccination rates is demonstrated, when the vaccination rate of susceptible people under 60 years old reaches 98%, and the vaccination rate of susceptible people over 60 years old reaches 96%, the peak of severe cases in the second wave of the epidemic will be reached on 13 July 2023, when the number of severe cases is 166,000.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.